BBS: TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto: The sub-$500 entry-level PC segment will disappear by 2028
De: Mike Powell
Data: Wed, 4 Mar 2026 09:22:16 -0500
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'The sub-$500 entry-level PC segment will disappear by 2028': Gartner predicts
that budget computers are on borrowed time
Opinion By Darren Allan published 23 hours ago
Budget laptops 'face obsolescence' thanks to the RAM crisis
Gartner's new report predicts PC sales will slump by 10.4% this year
The rising cost of RAM could make "low-margin entry-level laptops
nonviable"
The analyst firm predicts: "Ultimately, we expect the sub-$500 entry-level
PC segment will disappear by 2028"
For some time, there's been a growing weight of evidence that buying a PC now,
rather than waiting, is a very sensible idea to avoid further RAM-fueled price
hikes with desktops and laptops - and a fresh prediction from Gartner adds to
this pile.
In a new report from the analyst firm (which was spotted by VGC), Gartner
observes that 'entry-level PCs face obsolescence' due to the spiking cost of
RAM, which is expected to peak this year at 23% of the total bill-of-materials
for a PC (on average) - up from 16% in 2025.
The bill-of-materials, known as BOM for short, is the cost of all the
components that make up a PC. (From the CPU and GPU plus memory, to the SSD and
motherboard, plus all the other trimmings such as fans, connectors, the power
supply, and the case or chassis itself).
Ranjit Atwal, senior director analyst at Gartner, notes: "This sharp increase
removes vendors' ability to absorb costs, making low-margin entry-level laptops
nonviable. Ultimately, we expect the sub-$500 entry-level PC segment will
disappear by 2028."
Atwal further predicts that: "In addition, rising AI PC prices will delay the
projected 50% market penetration of AI PCs until 2028."
Gartner estimates that PC shipments will drop by 10.4% in 2026 compared to last
year as the market weakens (and phone shipments will also drop to the tune of
8.4%, we're told).
By the end of 2026, the analyst firm foresees a 130% rise in RAM and SSD costs,
which is going to increase asking prices for PCs by an estimated 17% compared
to 2025, Gartner believes - a hefty hike.
Analysis: steepest contraction in PC shipments in over a decade
So, this isn't just going to be a low-end PC problem, and it fully makes sense
that the higher-end of the market will take a blow from increased RAM (as well
as storage) costs, too. Those devices have more breathing room in terms of
their overall cost to make the hikes less impactful, of course.
Still, the broad prediction is that more expensive AI (Copilot+) laptops will
lose sales momentum this year and next, not recovering until 2028, alongside
the vanishing act, which is apparently going to happen with sub-$500 laptops
and desktop PCs.
It's a believable enough prediction, sadly, and even if those budget PCs don't
entirely disappear, I'd put money on them being much thinner on the ground as
2026 rolls onwards. HP has already said that the cost of RAM has shot up for
its laptops, and indeed, the manufacturer told us that the chunk that system
memory takes out of the total bill-of-materials has doubled in the space of a
quarter. That's a frightening revelation, frankly, and one that more than backs
up the idea that Gartner is putting forward here.
Those who feel they may need a new laptop in the near future, then, might be
advised to start looking to buy one now - especially if they're searching
towards the budget end of the market.
There's another prospect, of course. Rather than upgrading, people will just
hold on to their existing PC for longer.
As Atwal observes: "This is the steepest contraction in device shipments
witnessed in over a decade. Higher prices will narrow the range of devices
available, prompting buyers to hold on to devices for longer, fundamentally
altering upgrade cycles."
Gartner theorizes that holdouts waiting for PC pricing to calm down will likely
mean that the average lifetime of a device will be extended by some 20% for
consumers by the end of the year (and 15% for business buyers). That could mean
folks keeping hold of outdated laptops running Windows 10, of course, with no
updates in place (after extended support expires in October 2026) and a raft of
security risks to face therein.
Whichever way you look at it, the outlook for the PC market is pretty gloomy.
https://www.techradar.com/computing/laptops/the-sub-usd500-entry-level-pc-segme
nt-will-disappear-by-2028-gartner-predicts-that-budget-computers-are-on-borrowe
d-time
$$
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