BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook De: COD Weather Processor Data: Sat, 18 Apr 2026 20:06:59 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS01 KWNS 182006 SWODY1 SPC AC 182005 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY VICINITY...AND PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated marginally severe hail is possible in portions of central Texas. Isolated damaging winds remain possible from the central Appalachians into the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. ...20Z Update... Based on observational trends 15% wind probabilities were removed from the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. Wind gusts along with weak, shallow convection (with little lightning) have generally been in the 30 kt range with isolated cases of low 40 kt gusts. Isolated wind damage remains possible, but a more organized threat is not expected given weak buoyancy downstream. Elsewhere, marginally severe hail remains possible with isolated, elevated convection in central Texas. ..Wendt.. 04/18/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026/ ...Upper OH Valley... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front pushing eastward across western OH, associated with a band of widespread clouds and light precipitation. Mostly clear skies are present ahead of the front, where temperatures are warming through the 70s. This will lead to a corridor of marginal afternoon instability and the potential for scattered thunderstorm intensification along the front. Forecast soundings show strong mid-level winds and steep low-level lapse rates, supportive of strong downdrafts in any vigorous convection. However, CAM guidance is consistent in showing very few organized/strong storms through the day. Will maintain the SLGT risk for the conditional risk of a few damaging wind events, but with limited confidence. ...TX... Isolated intense thunderstorms have been ongoing this morning in the post-frontal regime across central TX. These storms have produced hail and gusty winds for several hours. It appears likely that this scenario will shift eastward and weaken early this afternoon as the primary upper jet moves into AR and away from the region, but will maintain the MRGL risk area for a few more hours and extend it into parts of AR/LA. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]