BBS:      TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto:  MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De:       COD Weather Processor
Data:     Sun, 26 Apr 2026 03:32:56 +0000
-----------------------------------------------------------
AWUS01 KWNH 260332
FFGMPD
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-260930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0133
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1131 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Areas affected...Northern Texas...South-Central to Southeast
Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 260331Z - 260930Z

SUMMARY...Supercells and merging convective clusters will continue
to organize and propagate southeastward overnight. An increasingly
favorable nocturnal environment will support rainfall rates of 2+
inches/hour. While antecedent conditions are relatively dry,
intense localized rates and cell-mergers may yield totals of 2 to
4+ inches, posing especially an urban flash flood threat.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR/WV satellite imagery and recent
mesoanalysis show a low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough over
the Plains interacting with a highly unstable airmass across the
Red River Valley. A highly conducive thermodynamic environment is
in place, characterized by PWs of ~1.5 inches, MLCAPE of 2500-3500
J/kg, and very steep mid-level lapse rates (7.5-8 C/km). This is
fueling robust supercellular convection, aided by deep-layer shear
locally exceeding 50 kts. Convection over northern TX remains
largely surface-based within the warm sector, while activity over
southern OK is slightly elevated, supported by a stationary front
and 925 mb frontogenesis.

Through the overnight hours, the current 20 to 30 kt low-level jet
is forecast to intensify, and this nocturnal enhancement will
increase warm air advection and moisture transport directly into
the Red River Valley, particularly toward south-central and
southeast OK. Upwind propagation vectors are aligned to the
southeast, strongly favoring the gradual upscale growth of merging
supercells into a forward-propagating MCS.

The 00Z HREF indicates a 20 to 30 percent probability of rainfall
rates exceeding 2 inches/hour within the heaviest cores. Storm
totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with locally higher amounts
where cell-training or complex mergers occur. While Flash Flood
Guidance (FFG) is higher across this corridor due to drier
antecedent conditions, the sheer intensity of the 2+ inches/hour
rates will easily outpace infiltration, resulting in isolated to
scattered areas of flash flooding, especially over any urban
footprints. This will include portions of the Dallas-Fort Worth
metropolitan area over the next 1 to 2 hours in particular.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_WY6Q3jdw2wzm8UWjF8F_wtHXHhRQ1mYvg0Bix0Uq_GrsY_cSRLOHLMHc7GdIRqJ-Zu1=
RPTZ2V72_NEnGTbwWKMPCMA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   34429609 33999474 33359420 32639414 32009488=20
            32039649 32519751 32969786 33759788 34269736=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

-----------------------------------------------------------
[Voltar]