BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook De: COD Weather Processor Data: Sun, 26 Apr 2026 05:33:56 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS01 KWNS 260533 SWODY1 SPC AC 260532 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large to very hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and southern Plains. Strong tornadoes and hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Hail and isolated severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains... A vigorous mid-level trough will eject northeastward toward the southern and central Rockies this afternoon into tonight, as an associated mid-level jet translates east-northeastward through the Desert Southwest. The exit region of the mid-level jet will overspread the central Plains by this evening providing lift and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for severe storms. At the surface, a lee trough will deepen over the southern and central High Plains, as moisture advects northward from Oklahoma into Kansas. Throughout most of the day, large-scale ascent will be limited over the moist sector. Isolated thunderstorms with hail and severe gusts will be possible in areas with maximized low-level convergence and strong instability. Convective coverage will likely increase during the evening as the mid-level jet max approaches, and as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet strengthens. By mid to late evening and into the overnight period, scattered severe storms will be likely in parts of the central Plains and Ozarks, with isolated storms possible in the southern Plains. Model forecasts suggest that a pocket of strong instability will be in place over Oklahoma early this evening, but that a capping inversion will exist over much of the moist sector. RAP forecast soundings at Salina, Kansas gradually erode the capping inversion during the evening as low-level moisture increases. By late evening in central Kansas, MUCAPE is forecast to be in the 4500 to 5000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be very steep and could exceed 8 C/km. This should be favorable for supercells with large to very large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Although the storms will likely be elevated during much of the evening, some cells could become surface-based in the mid to late evening or early overnight period. Once this occurs, a tornado threat should develop. The more intense supercells could produce a strong tornado or two. A wind-damage threat will also be possible. Further south into parts of Oklahoma, limited large-scale ascent will make initiation difficult along the dryline. If a storm can become established during the late afternoon or early to mid evening, extreme instability (MLCAPE near 5000 J/kg) and steep mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/Km will be very favorable for large to very large hail. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 250 m2/s2 would also support a tornado threat. ...Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley... The eastern edge of a moist and unstable airmass will be located in the lower Mississippi Valley today. Although large-scale ascent will be weak due to the presence of a mid-level ridge, isolated convective initiation will be possible in areas that locally heat up the most. Cells that can strengthen in the late afternoon and early evening could produce isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Central and Southwest Texas... The western edge of an extremely unstable airmass will be located from central Texas into southwest Texas this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm initiation will be possible just to the east of a dryline, as low-level convergence increases late this afternoon. The extreme instability (MLCAPE of 4000 to 5000 J/kg) with moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates would be favorable for isolated large hail and strong wind gusts. ..Broyles/Moore.. 04/26/2026 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]