BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok De: COD Weather Processor Data: Sun, 26 Apr 2026 17:32:31 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS02 KWNS 261732 SWODY2 SPC AC 261731 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Monday afternoon through Monday evening, accompanied by potential for a few strong tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail. ...Discussion... A potent shortwave will move across the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes on Monday, with strong mid-level flow over spreading the region. As a result, a surface low will deepen across the central Plains and move eastward into northern Missouri/southern Iowa, with attendant cold front shifting south and east and northward lifting warm front. A dryline will be in place ahead of the approaching cold front from western Missouri southward into south into eastern Oklahoma. This will eventually be overtaken by the cold front. Convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the Monday period, with a remnant MCS moving across central Missouri and spurious convection to the north across Iowa. Additional thunderstorm development in the afternoon will be highly conditional on the track and maintenance of this morning MCS. Nonetheless, it appears that severe storms will develop by the afternoon along and ahead of the cold front and in the vicinity of the lifting warm front with the primary risks for large to very large hail, tornadoes (a few of which may be strong), and an eventual evolution to potential for damaging winds towards the late afternoon/evening. ...Middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys... The morning convection across northern Missouri into Iowa makes for complex forecast Monday afternoon. Initially, the morning MCS and spurious convection to the north may pose a low wind/hail risk. Once this shifts eastward, uncertainty remains in how the air mass will evolve into the afternoon. Guidance seems to suggest that strong daytime heating, albeit somewhat filtered through mid-level cloud debris, will occur with air mass recovery across Missouri into southern Iowa. The strengthening low-level jet will usher in a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates and upper 60's dew points. Confidence is highest in a better corridor of heating/destabilization across central/southern Missouri into central Illinois. As such, hail and tornado probabilities were shifted south and west. Initial supercells in this region will be capable of large to very large hail (some 2-3+ inches in diameter) and tornadoes (perhaps some strong). A more conditional threat exists further north across northern Missouri into southern Iowa near the lifting warm front. A warm front will lift northward with reinforcement from remnant outflow producing a zone of differential heating. Should better heating and recovery be able to occur in this region, potential for supercells with large to very large hail (some 2-3 inches in diameter) and strong tornadoes will be possible. As the cold front shifts southward, mode will become more mixed and linear with time, with an increase in the damaging wind risk. However, line embedded circulations will may continue to pose a risk for strong tornadoes, with evolving meso-vortices along developing gust fronts of convective outflow. This will extend into central Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee into the late evening. ..Thornton.. 04/26/2026 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]