BBS:      TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto:  MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De:       COD Weather Processor
Data:     Mon, 27 Apr 2026 02:03:18 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 270203
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-270800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0136
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1001 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Areas affected...Southeast KS, Southwest MO, Northeast OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 270200Z - 270800Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving supercells and cell mergers will pose at
least an isolated flash flood risk this evening across portions of
Southeast KS, far northeast OK and southwest MO. The degree of
upscale growth into a larger convective cluster remains uncertain,
keeping confidence lower for a more widespread threat.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery currently depicts scattered
supercellular convection ongoing across the region. Recent
mesoanalysis indicates impressive MLCAPE ranging from 1500 to 3000
J/kg collocated with strong deep layer shear. Moisture is
moderate, with PW values analyzed around 1.3-1.5 inches, but
rainfall efficiency will likely be enhanced within any stronger
mesocyclones.

Over the next several hours, large scale forcing for ascent is
expected to gradually increase as a shortwave trough approaches
from the west, accompanied by strengthening upper level
divergence. Concurrently, low level moisture transport and
convergence are forecast to intensify this evening. This evolution
should promote at least some upscale growth of the ongoing
convection into larger multi-cell clusters that slowly move off to
the east-southeast. As convective coverage increases, the risk of
cell mergers, backbuilding, and training will naturally rise,
setting the stage for localized swaths of heavier rainfall.

There remains some uncertainty regarding the exact degree of
upscale growth this evening. At a minimum, the slow-moving nature
of the ongoing supercells combined with a few cell mergers should
result in at least an isolated flash flood risk. At a maximum, the
increasing moisture convergence and large scale forcing will drive
enough upscale convective growth to force a more focused area of
flash flooding.

Despite the uncertainty in the exact convective evolution, high
resolution guidance highlights the heavy rainfall ceiling should
consolidation occur. Notably, 00z WoFS depicts over an 90%
probability of exceeding 3 inches of rainfall in a swath near the
KS/OK/MO intersection, a 40-70% probability of localized totals
exceeding 5 inches, and a 90th percentile rainfall of 7". The
exact footprint of the WoFS may not perfectly verify, but it
illustrates a realistic heavy rainfall potential given the
ingredients currently in place.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9asc44z1Ie5HYee6Y51YDr4OzdBO8kbY-qpON2I9YMJvG8HCwnHWTsBRCpzNvuEj_5v4=
bE2A5l3wPdn3uZpdrxV01Nw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   38659279 38429233 37739183 36759218 36489325=20
            36449456 36559611 36999644 37759574 38059519=20
            38349420=20

=3D =3D =3D
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