BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok De: COD Weather Processor Data: Tue, 28 Apr 2026 07:28:49 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS03 KWNS 280728 SWODY3 SPC AC 280727 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Probabilities for severe storms Thursday through Thursday night appear less than 5 percent. ...Discussion... Models suggest that an elongated area of lower mid-level heights will continue a slow east-southeastward progression across much of the upper Mississippi Valley through northern Atlantic Seaboard, with an embedded cyclonic circulation redeveloping southeastward through the Great Lakes region. In its wake split westerlies will remain broadly confluent across and east of the Rockies, as a short wave perturbation emerges from the subtropical eastern Pacific. Further suppression of subtropical ridging centered across southern Mexico appears probable Thursday through Thursday night, but short wave ridging may persist to the east of the southern Rockies, downstream of the subtropical perturbation. Model spread remains sizable concerning the evolution and motion of the subtropical perturbation, as well as developments within a branch of westerlies to the north, emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific. However, to the east of the Rockies, cool surface ridging is likely to be maintained across much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley into Southeast. While the frontal zone on the leading edge of this air mass advances away from much of the Atlantic Seaboard, it is generally forecast to stall across northern Florida through the northern Gulf or Gulf coast vicinity. More uncertainty exists, due to model spread, whether it will make further progress southward through the Texas Big Bend vicinity and coastal plain, or redevelop northward a bit, north of the coastal plain and Pecos Valley. Forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, downstream of the approaching subtropical perturbation, may contribute to a corridor of increasing thunderstorm development above the stable surface-based air across parts of the Permian Basin and Texas South Plains through much of central Texas by late Thursday night. However, it remains unclear if elevated destabilization will become supportive of a risk for severe hail, before convection becomes increasingly widespread. Otherwise, the front might provide a general focus for widely scattered thunderstorm activity near the Gulf coast vicinity, while destabilization beneath cool mid-level air across the Great Basin into southern Rockies supports scattered, mostly diurnal thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 04/28/2026 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]