BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: HVYSNOW: Probabilistic Heavy Snow And Icing Discussion De: COD Weather Processor Data: Tue, 28 Apr 2026 07:32:58 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- FOUS11 KWBC 280732 QPFHSD Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 332 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Valid 12Z Tue Apr 28 2026 - 12Z Fri May 01 2026 ...Central & Southern Rockies... Days 1-3... Periods of light-to-moderate snow will linger for a little longer this morning with an additional 3-6" of snowfall possible in the Park Range and Flat Tops of the CO Rockies. Snow should taper off after midday as the shortwave trough responsible for the mountain snow moves into the Central Plains. Following a break in the action between Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday evening, a closed 500mb low (closed at 300mb as well) west of Baja will head east at the same time that a secondary impulse over the Great Basin results in 500mb height falls over the CO Rockies. This "squeeze-play" between the pair of upper-level troughs and a 500mb ridge over Mexico fosters a robust subtropical stream, culminating in 200mb winds over the Central Plains that exceed the 99.5 climatological percentile per ECMWF SATs. In addition to this textbook jet-streak dynamics setup, high pressure over the Northern Plains will bleed south down the Front Range and Sangre De Cristo, forcing favorable easterly upsloping low-level winds to ensue. This is a classic setup for mountain snow (and valley/Plains rainfall) in a region that could sorely use any precipitation of note. The latest forecast shows snow increasing in intensity along the CO Front Range throughout the day on Thursday, then along the Sangre De Cristo Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. There remain some differences in model guidance regarding the timing and strength of the approaching 500mb low as it tracks over northern Mexico Friday morning. Regardless, low-level easterly flow should linger long enough into Friday to keep mountain snow going through at least the first half of the day. Most guidance agrees snow tapers off by Friday evening as the 500mb low races east into the Southern Plains. WPC probabilities show at least moderate chances (>50%) for snowfall totals >8" above 9,000ft in the CO Front Range and Sangre De Cristo, with the Park Range having similar probabilities above 10,000ft. Some of the tallest CO peaks (including Pikes Peak) could witness localized snowfall amounts surpass 20". Some light snow is possible over the Palmer Divide and Raton Pass (1-3"), but most snow is a welcomed sight for drought-stricken CO and NM. The probability for significant icing over one-tenth of an inch is less than 10 percent. Mullinax $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]