BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook De: COD Weather Processor Data: Tue, 28 Apr 2026 16:53:27 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS01 KWNS 281653 SWODY1 SPC AC 281651 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms will occur across parts of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and Southeast through this evening. Very large to giant hail (2-4+ inches), swaths of severe/damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Southern Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... Have upgraded portions of North Texas to a Moderate Risk for what is anticipated to be a semi-focused sub-regional corridor of supercells including very large hail potential along with some damaging wind/tornado risk centered on mid-afternoon through early/mid-evening. First, a loosely organized complex of storms continues to progress east-northeastward along the Red River of southeast Oklahoma/northeast Texas and broader parts of eastern Oklahoma at late morning. Additional increasingly surface-based development seems probable on this near-frontal zone and associated moist axis and thermal gradient that extends east-northeastward to the Mid-South/ArkLaMiss. This may include supercells as well as the possibility of an upscale-growing complex. Other initially elevated severe storms are expected to continue and increase today from northeast Oklahoma across the Ozarks toward parts of the Mid-South/Mississippi Valley. Large hail is the initial risk, but a surface-based storm risk could develop pending boundary layer warming. Broadly speaking outside on ongoing storms, a strongly unstable airmass exists across the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex, along and near a slowly retreating/northward-returning warm front. This is beneath relatively strong winds aloft, particularly in mid/high-levels based on morning upper-air data. Additional intense surface-based convective development is forecast near the triple point in north-central Texas towards the ArkLaTex this afternoon, where extreme instability (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and very strong deep-layer shear (50-60+ kt) will support the potential for multiple intense supercells. Very large to giant hail (2-4+ inches) may occur with the strongest supercells given the overall very favorable environment and presence of steep mid-level lapse rates. Some tornado threat may also exist with these supercells, even though low-level shear is not forecast to be overly strong. Additional severe storms are expected as far east as Mississippi and Alabama today -- see Mesoscale Discussion 594 for short-term details. An additional secondary round of upscale-growing storms with increasing damaging wind potential could also move into this same region late today, or more so tonight. ..Guyer/Chalmers.. 04/28/2026 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]