BBS:      TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto:  MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De:       COD Weather Processor
Data:     Tue, 28 Apr 2026 18:35:04 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 281834
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-290015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0146
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
234 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Areas affected...southeastern OK/northeastern TX into southern
AR/northern LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281832Z - 290015Z

SUMMARY...An increase in the coverage of thunderstorms is expected
across portions of southeastern OK/northern-northeastern TX into
southern AR/northern LA through the afternoon. Repeating and brief
training of heavy rain could result in isolated 3 to 5 inch totals
within a 2 to 3 hours window along with flash flooding, although
any coverage of these higher rainfall values should remain limited.

DISCUSSION...18Z surface observations helped place a
quasi-stationary front from a low near the Red River, northwest of
SPS, east-northeastward into central AR. The environment along and
south of the front was very unstable with MLCAPE of 2500 to 4000+
J/kg via 18Z SPC mesoanalysis data. Scattered thunderstorms were
ongoing along and north of the front from south-central MO into
western and southern AR, with motions averaging 30-40 kt toward
the ENE. It was relatively quiet to the west but upstream, water
vapor imagery showed a shortwave trough axis over the southern TX
Panhandle with movement approaching the Red River. Visible imagery
showed the early stages of convective development ahead of the
dryline and near the stationary front ahead of the Red River
surface low.

Additional thunderstorm development within the unstable airmass is
likely over the next few hours as upstream energy interacts with
numerous boundaries (including an outflow boundary currently
between the DFW Metroplex and the Red River) and the unstable
environment where CIN is continuing to decrease with daytime
heating. Sufficient shear exists for organized cells, with
supercells and multicells containing movement from the W or WSW.
While the general movement of most cells should be progressive
toward the east, there is potential for some localized upstream
redevelopment and brief training which could result in 1 to 2
in/hr rates and 3 to 5 inch totals on an isolated basis.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_bGaOFFGjC6XB_HKwCI2eTopET_qfHn6SCXLfVcbDxgy9iAvjk0ir3l3fMI5jxzdH5H4=
DSxNWgGytZKGc1DZrIrWe7s$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...JAN...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   35449344 34919229 34009119 33359107 32789167=20
            32099310 31649567 31949757 32789856 33479896=20
            34219876 34709773 34929555=20

=3D =3D =3D
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