BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion De: COD Weather Processor Data: Sat, 2 May 2026 08:17:29 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- FOUS30 KWBC 020817 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 417 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026 Day 1 Valid 12Z Sat May 02 2026 - 12Z Sun May 03 2026 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS=20 OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.... A progressive upper trough is expected to help focus and sustain additional showers and thunderstorms across portions of northern Florida into southeast Georgia today into day into the early=20 morning hours of Sunday. The atmospheric setup still promotes a=20 relatively favorable environment suitable for localized heavy=20 rainfall. Flash Flood Guidance values may come down just a bit=20 given the rainfall moving across the region prior to the start of=20 the Day 1 period at 12/02 but the expectation is that the FFG=20 values should not come down significantly. As a result...even if rainfall rates on the order of 1- to 2-inch per hour occurs the impact may=20 only prove to be short-lived run off problems or ponding in=20 regions of poor drainage and/or urban areas.=20 Bann Day 2 Valid 12Z Sun May 03 2026 - 12Z Mon May 04 2026 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS=20 OF THEM SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA ON SUNDAY... Maintained the Marginal Risk area for a portion of the southeastern Florida peninsula on Sunday. The area was along and south of a southward advancing front where the airmass was characterized by CAPE on the order of 500 to 1000 J per kg and precipitable water values are forecast to be around 1.5 inches. Given the recent dry spell, it appears that the greatest risk of excessive rainfall will be in urban areas where the surface is largely impervious to water. With the front progressing farther south with each model=20 run...the amount of territory at risk keeps shrinking and there may be little to no need for an excessive rainfall area shortly. Bann Day 3 Valid 12Z Mon May 04 2026 - 12Z Tue May 05 2026 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent.=20 Bann Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9ZOxdQ1UgIUQPYrAhFipscW6TnB57TIuIOasVuW4enb4= QXHYrW2FJV1F06-W9mPY0aIvDzz6kWkXprQ4YloAx543TmQ$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9ZOxdQ1UgIUQPYrAhFipscW6TnB57TIuIOasVuW4enb4= QXHYrW2FJV1F06-W9mPY0aIvDzz6kWkXprQ4YloAasDf2AE$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9ZOxdQ1UgIUQPYrAhFipscW6TnB57TIuIOasVuW4enb4= QXHYrW2FJV1F06-W9mPY0aIvDzz6kWkXprQ4YloAXiDo_-4$=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]