BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion De: COD Weather Processor Data: Sat, 2 May 2026 15:55:29 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- FOUS30 KWBC 021555 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1155 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026 Day 1 Valid 16Z Sat May 02 2026 - 12Z Sun May 03 2026 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. The Marginal Risk area was dropped for the rest of this period for northern Florida and southeast Georgia given the progressiveness of the convection and rapidly decreasing risk of reaching/exceeding FFG. Campbell Day 2 Valid 12Z Sun May 03 2026 - 12Z Mon May 04 2026 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THEM SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA ON SUNDAY... Maintained the Marginal Risk area for a portion of the southeastern Florida peninsula on Sunday. The area was along and south of a southward advancing front where the airmass was characterized by CAPE on the order of 500 to 1000 J per kg and precipitable water values are forecast to be around 1.5 inches. Given the recent dry spell, it appears that the greatest risk of excessive rainfall will be in urban areas where the surface is largely impervious to water. With the front progressing farther south with each model run...the amount of territory at risk keeps shrinking and there may be little to no need for an excessive rainfall area shortly. Bann Day 3 Valid 12Z Mon May 04 2026 - 12Z Tue May 05 2026 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Bann Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-r0wQ2hp4Em6x-mIg3n3srTC7lh6nAA66PSfi_JY8zgS= 10HxIOGxxpvmTE3VrZHL7fWML2lQEDXcop8F5jmhM8Cn8IU$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-r0wQ2hp4Em6x-mIg3n3srTC7lh6nAA66PSfi_JY8zgS= 10HxIOGxxpvmTE3VrZHL7fWML2lQEDXcop8F5jmhA3wp35M$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-r0wQ2hp4Em6x-mIg3n3srTC7lh6nAA66PSfi_JY8zgS= 10HxIOGxxpvmTE3VrZHL7fWML2lQEDXcop8F5jmhSMMvYaQ$=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]