BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok De: COD Weather Processor Data: Sat, 2 May 2026 17:26:01 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS02 KWNS 021725 SWODY2 SPC AC 021724 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Sat May 02 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of northern/central Missouri and central Illinois on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A broad cyclone across the Midwest/East will remain in the wake of a stronger upper trough departing the East Coast early Sunday. An embedded shortwave trough will move southeastward into the lower Missouri and mid-Missouri Valleys during the afternoon. At the surface, weak moisture return is expected on the western flank of the southeastern surface high. A weak cold front will move into central Missouri/Illinois and serve as a focus for possible convective development. ...Northern/central Missouri into central Illinois... Moisture return continues to be the main point of uncertainty in the forecast. The typically moist NAM still suggests dewpoints in the low 50s F is possible. However, current surface/sounding observational data shows poor moisture quality as far south as central Texas. Moisture return is forecast to being overnight Saturday. With only weak low-level flow expected, the pattern simply does not suggest robust moisture return. It seems more probable that moisture that does advance northward will be shallow and have a tendency to mix out during the day. All that said, temperatures aloft will be rather cold (around -20 C at 500 mb). Even upper 40s F dewpoints will result in around 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Modest convergence along the surface front and aid from a shortwave trough may promote isolated storm development by late afternoon/early evening. A potent mid-level jet will increase effective shear to 50-60 kt near the Mississippi River decreasing to near 40 kt in western Missouri. Large hail is possible with the strongest storms. Isolated strong/severe winds are also possible given the well-mixed boundary layer. Storms should weaken relatively quickly after sunset given the drier boundary layer. ...Northern California/southwest Oregon... Convection is possible during the afternoon as mid-level temperatures cool in close proximity to the upper low off the coast. Filtered surface heating could allow for a few stronger storms to develop. Small hail and gusty winds are possible. Anvil-level flow will be quite weak which will likely lead to storms that are only strong briefly. The overall severe potential appears low. ..Wendt.. 05/02/2026 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]