BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook De: COD Weather Processor Data: Sun, 3 May 2026 05:38:05 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS01 KWNS 030538 SWODY1 SPC AC 030536 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of northern/central Missouri and central Illinois on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A short-wave trough with a belt of enhanced northwesterly flow within the broader eastern US trough will overspread the Missouri Valley through this evening. A weak cold front will extend across portions of the central Plains into the Missouri Valley. This boundary will be the focus for potential isolated thunderstorm development as the short-wave moves in across the region by the evening. ...Northern/central Missouri into central Illinois... Moisture quality continues to be a question within the Marginal Risk area as previously stated in prior outlooks. Surface observations show 50s dew points have made it as far north as the Red River in southern Oklahoma as of late Saturday evening. There remains some question just how far north (or deep) this moisture will be by late afternoon across Missouri/Illinois. Most 00z guidance suggests that 50 F dew points will steadily spread into Missouri through the day today. However, afternoon sounding profiles suggest this moisture to be thin and potentially subject to mixing. Through the afternoon, weak convergence along the front and a mid-level capping inversion will likely prohibit convective development. As the short-wave ascent arrives in the evening, 00z HREF guidance suggest that at least isolated thunderstorms may develop (as seen in ensemble paint balls >40z dBZ and in calibrated thunder chances around 40-50%). Temperatures aloft will be rather cold (around -20 C at 500 mb). Even upper 40s F dewpoints will result in around 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon/early evening. Given steepening lapse rate profiles and cold temperatures aloft, potential for a few instances of severe hail and strong to severe winds will be possible. ...Northern California/southwest Oregon... Convection is possible during the afternoon as mid-level temperatures cool in close proximity to the upper low off the coast. Filtered surface heating could allow for a few stronger storms to develop. Small hail and gusty winds are possible. Anvil-level flow will be quite weak which will likely lead to storms that are only strong briefly. The overall severe potential appears low. ..Thornton/Lyons.. 05/03/2026 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]