BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok De: COD Weather Processor Data: Sun, 3 May 2026 05:05:06 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS02 KWNS 030505 SWODY2 SPC AC 030503 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Midwest late Monday afternoon into Monday night. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will dig southward across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Monday. At the same time, a upper low near CA and attendant trough will pivot eastward toward the Southwest. At the surface, low pressure over Ontario will develop northeast toward James Bay while a trailing cold front moves southeast across the northern/central Plains and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. Meanwhile, a second surface low is forecast to deepen in the vicinity of western KS/OK with a dryline extending southward across central KS/western OK and west-central TX. Modest southerly return flow will transport mainly 50s to near 60 F dewpoints northward across OK/eastern KS into MO. More modest boundary layer moisture is expected ahead of the cold front across portions of the Midwest. ...Eastern KS toward Lake Michigan and western OH... Modest boundary layer moisture and uncertainty in timing/location of the surface front contribute to uncertainty in severe potential for Monday. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and a corridor of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE appears likely ahead of the front. A lead shortwave impulse will migrate across the OH Valley during the day. This may provide sufficient forcing for ascent for isolated thunderstorm development within an uncapped and modestly sheared airmass. Strong storms could produce small hail and gusty winds. Additional strong storms are possible during the afternoon further to the northwest near the surface front from eastern IA toward Lake Michigan. However, boundary layer moisture will likely be even more limited across this area, leading to weaker instability. Nevertheless, a well mixed boundary layer could support strong wind gusts. Stronger ascent will arrive after 00z across the central Plains and Mid-MS Valley vicinity in tandem with an increasing southwesterly low-level jet. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the triple points in central/eastern KS and into MO as the surface cold front drops southward. This activity may pose a risk for hail and strong gusts. ...Southwest OK vicinity... Some forecast guidance develops thunderstorms near the dryline late afternoon/early evening across the southwest OK vicinity. Large scale ascent will remain nebulous across the region and capping may preclude thunderstorm development. However, strong heating west of the dryline and strong convergence in model guidance are noted. If a storm could break the cap, a severe risk could develop. However, coverage/temporal risk would likely be limited and confidence in this scenario is low, precluding severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2026 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]