BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion De: COD Weather Processor Data: Sun, 3 May 2026 08:25:49 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- FOUS30 KWBC 030825 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 425 AM EDT Sun May 3 2026 Day 1 Valid 12Z Sun May 03 2026 - 12Z Mon May 04 2026 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA... Just enough of a signal in the 03/00Z CAMS to maintain the Marginal Risk area. The focus will be over the urban southeast coast as a front advances into a region of deeper moisture and where CAPE tends to be under 1000 J per kg. The 03/00Z HREF does depict a low-end neighborhood probability of FFGs being exceeded over the southern tip of the Florida peninsula in the 03/21Z to 04/00Z period but the stronger signals in the guidance is for heavier=20 rainfall to be hugging the coast or remaining just off-shore. It was noted that over the past couple of days...numerical models have been cutting back the amount of moisture in the lowest layers which Bann Day 2 Valid 12Z Mon May 04 2026 - 12Z Tue May 05 2026 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent.=20 Bann Day 3 Valid 12Z Tue May 05 2026 - 12Z Wed May 06 2026 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... Deep layer southwesterly flow leading into the start of the period will be drawing moisture into parts of the Plains and then downstream toward the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley. As a trough amplifies over the central part of North America and a jet streak forms over the Southwest US and approaches the Plains...the chance for showers and thunderstorms increases along and ahead of a develops surface front. With precipitable water values of 1.75 to=20 1.9 inches embedded within a broader 1.5 to 1.75 area...which was pushing two standardized anomalies greater than climatology for this time of year--locally heavy rainfall and the associated risk=20 of localized flooding from late Tuesday afternoon into early=20 Wednesday is possible. Bann Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_-vBhYxkpWAbWqMc6Mo8NCxIWDNBUl9J7rMf5IG3j8yk= vU7phECEnTiihcAaDnZRLtfMnjUmQmzmpJEyPlaaxjbDzo4$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_-vBhYxkpWAbWqMc6Mo8NCxIWDNBUl9J7rMf5IG3j8yk= vU7phECEnTiihcAaDnZRLtfMnjUmQmzmpJEyPlaaq540Yzg$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_-vBhYxkpWAbWqMc6Mo8NCxIWDNBUl9J7rMf5IG3j8yk= vU7phECEnTiihcAaDnZRLtfMnjUmQmzmpJEyPlaastMH-fY$=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]