BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion De: COD Weather Processor Data: Thu, 7 May 2026 15:41:15 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- FOUS30 KWBC 071541 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1141 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026 Day 1 Valid 16Z Thu May 07 2026 - 12Z Fri May 08 2026 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM SOUTHERNMOST GEORGIA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...16Z Update... The northern extent of the Marginal Risk was trimmed as an east- west axis of thunderstorms enter the Florida Panhandle. Confluent=20 low-level flow directed into the upwind and minimally capped=20 segment of a slow moving cold front could support new thunderstorm=20 development and periodic training in the short term. However, with=20 time a shortwave trough approaching the Tennessee Valley will=20 redirect the strongest low-level forcing and moisture downstream of the complex. As such, the HREF and REFS (while being too slow with the convection) both suggest these storms should lessen in=20 coverage and intensity as they lose latitude in the next few hours. This should relegate any isolated flash flooding concerns to areas along and just north of the I-10 corridor in the Florida=20 Panhandle.=20 Asherman Day 2 Valid 12Z Fri May 08 2026 - 12Z Sat May 09 2026 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM SOUTH TEXAS GULF COAST THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... The synoptic pattern on Friday will characterized by the return of deep moisture as a previously stalled front, lingering along the Gulf Coast begins to lift northward as a warm front. PWs are forecast to climb above 1.75 inches from South Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley, providing an ample reservoir for heavy rainfall. This moisture, along with an upper level low moving into West Texas and downstream shortwave energy/upper jet forcing, are expected to support numerous showers and storms with the potential for heavy rates. However, while the environment is expected to be favorable for numerous showers and storms to develop, confidence in the placement of the heaviest rainfall has diminished with this cycle, with significant model spread regarding where the most intense convective clusters will organize. Therefore, the Slight Risk that was previously carried from southeastern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley has been removed for now. The reintroduction of a Slight Risk may be warranted in future updates, particularly farther southwest across South Texas closer to the ejecting upper low/shortwave, but predictability is too low to maintain the higher category. For now, will maintain a broad Marginal Risk extending from South Texas to southern Mississippi. Pereira Day 3 Valid 12Z Sat May 09 2026 - 12Z Sun May 10 2026 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... The previously noted upper level low moving across southern Texas on Day 2 will continue to eject east, moving along the central Gulf Coast into the Southeast -- deamplifying as it becomes embedded within the base of a broad upper trough centered over the central- eastern U.S. Deep moisture remaining ahead of this wave and along a slow-moving boundary will continue to fuel shower and storm development capable of producing heavy rainfall. Similar to Day 2, confidence was lacking for any upgrades beyond a Marginal Risk. However, should the models start to move into better agreement, an upgrade may be warranted in future updates -- especially if the guidance begins to show a growing signal for heavy amounts across areas impacted by recent heavy rains. Pereira Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9JM2RwO0DHK9qnXnwsqyfE3IWM92MFg1KTYqdbwznkG2= ZdxeKl3RUoTCU_9fL-kEcezIpzsrkggca7vcWLbpWE2YZU4$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9JM2RwO0DHK9qnXnwsqyfE3IWM92MFg1KTYqdbwznkG2= ZdxeKl3RUoTCU_9fL-kEcezIpzsrkggca7vcWLbpfOoSzg4$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9JM2RwO0DHK9qnXnwsqyfE3IWM92MFg1KTYqdbwznkG2= ZdxeKl3RUoTCU_9fL-kEcezIpzsrkggca7vcWLbpkN6EU8c$=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]