BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook De: COD Weather Processor Data: Thu, 7 May 2026 19:50:13 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS01 KWNS 071950 SWODY1 SPC AC 071948 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Thu May 07 2026 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms will remain possible across portions of northern Florida into Georgia and parts of the Carolinas. ...20z Update... MRMS VIL has depicted a weakening trend in convection across the FL Panhandle and northern FL over the past 1-2 hours as convection migrates east into a more deeply mixed/drier air mass. A downstream 18 UTC sounding from JAX sampled diminished mid-level lapse rates and increased inhibition as well, casting doubt on the potential for re-intensification across north FL through the afternoon. For this reason, 15% wind and 5% tornado risk probabilities were removed, though recent high-res guidance suggests that a strong storm or two will remain possible as the surface cold front continues to push southeast through early evening. Further northeast into GA and the Carolinas, gradual clearing has allowed temperatures to warm into the low to mid 70s amid low/mid 60s dewpoints. This is supporting modest MLCAPE values (500 J/kg or less) within an otherwise strongly sheared environment. Given these trends, opted to maintain low-end wind probabilities to account for isolated strong convection capable of damaging winds. Across southern/central TX, elevated convection has shown a similar weakening trend over the past few hours. While transient stronger updrafts will remain possible given residual MUCAPE sampled by regional ACARS soundings, the recent convective trends coupled with nebulous forcing for ascent and minimal updraft/UH signal in recent CAM guidance lends enough confidence to remove 5% hail probabilities. ..Moore.. 05/07/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026/ ...FL Panhandle into north FL and far southern GA... A mid-level vorticity lobe over the Mid South is forecast to rapidly move east and reach the NC Outer Banks by mid evening. Late morning satellite/radar imagery shows a broken band of strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of a cold front and draped west-southwest to east-northeast. A moist and fully modified boundary layer extends from the northeast Gulf into the FL Panhandle and Big Bend with notably drier air over interior north FL. Convergence along the front is forecast to weaken late today into tonight as a weak low over the Carolinas shifts offshore. However, the prefrontal airmass will remain moist, moderately unstable, and strongly sheared (50+ kt effective shear) across the FL Panhandle vicinity through the mid afternoon. Embedded cells within the bands will potentially be capable of wind damage and perhaps a brief tornado before this activity gradually weakens as it moves into a less-buoyant regime farther east of north FL. ...Carolinas... Some thinning of cloud cover and modest heating ahead of the cold front will yield weak buoyancy prior to the front clearing the coast later today. Weak low-level lapse rates will tend to limit the overall severe risk (i.e., localized wind damage potential). However, will maintain low wind probabilities this outlook update due to the possibility for a couple of deeper updrafts to organize within a region with strong deep-layer wind fields. ...Edwards Plateau into the Lower Rio Grande Valley... Elevated buoyancy will likely persist throughout the day with a few stronger updrafts intermittently developing over the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau. Strong deep-layer vertical shear (i.e. effective bulk shear from 50 to 60 kt) and 1000+ J/kg MUCAPE may support the potential for an isolated risk for marginally severe hail. Farther south and displaced away from the higher terrain, very low thunderstorm coverage is expected despite a modifying and more moist airmass. Have trimmed hail probabilities over this region due to the lack of storm coverage in the latest model guidance. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]