BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook De: COD Weather Processor Data: Fri, 8 May 2026 05:44:17 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS01 KWNS 080544 SWODY1 SPC AC 080542 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are possible from southeast Kansas through much of central and eastern Oklahoma into north Texas Friday afternoon into Friday night. More sparse occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible across the Ozarks, central and south TX, and the Gulf Coast states. ...Synopsis... An 80-90 kt upper-level jet streak located across the northern Rockies this evening will progress southeast into the central Plains on Friday, contributing to amplification of a short-wave trough over the same general area. That disturbance is then expected to weaken Friday night as it moves into an increasingly confluent, mid-level flow regime in place across the lower OH and TN Valleys. Elsewhere, a mid/upper-level low over Sonora into Chihuahua, Mexico at the start of the period is forecast to evolve into a weakening, open wave while accelerating east through TX into the lower-MS Valley. At the surface, a cold front associated with the northern-stream, short-wave trough will progress south through the central into southern High Plains on Friday with the boundary extending from the southern TX Panhandle through n-central OK and southeast KS into central MO by mid/late afternoon. A diffuse dryline or pre-frontal trough will extend from southwest TX into the southeast TX Panhandle, where it will link with the cold front. Elsewhere, a cold front currently advancing south through the Carolinas and GA is expected continue its slow, southward movement into the northern FL Peninsula by afternoon. However, the western extension of the front initially over the northwest Gulf is forecast to weaken or lift north as a warm front into TX and LA on Friday, allowing a moist, unstable air mass to those areas. The front is expected to move onto the central and northeast Gulf Coast Friday night as the low-level mass field responds to the short-wave trough moving into the TN Valley. ...Oklahoma and north Texas into the Ozarks... Modest, boundary-layer moistening is anticipated on Friday ahead of the cold front with dewpoints increasing into the low/mid 50s. That process will occur beneath the eastern extension of a steep, mid-level lapse rate (EML) plume, supporting MLCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg from OK into southeast KS. Greater cloud cover and the potential for early-day showers and storms are expected to limit the destabilization process farther northeast along the front into the Ozarks. Increased height falls/forcing for ascent attending the migratory short-wave trough coupled with convergence along the cold front are expected to foster scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon across portions of northern into central MO with subsequent southwestward development along the boundary across southeast KS into northern OK by mid/late afternoon. Isolated occurrences of damaging wind and hail are possible along and ahead of the MO segment of the front, where 40-45 kt of effective bulk shear will coincide with MLCAPE of generally less than 1000 J/kg. Across the level 2/Slight Risk area, comparatively steeper lapse rates and resultant greater instability are expected to offer a higher probability of supercell storm modes with the initial hazard being large hail up to 2" in diameter. A deeper, well-mixed boundary with sizable temperature-dewpoint spreads is expected to limit tornado potential, especially given modest low-level shear. The models do hint at some increase in low-level shear toward 00z across northeast Ok into southeast KS, where some tornado risk could evolve. Otherwise, there is a consistent signal across a number of convection-allowing models that the initial storms will grow upscale into a forward-propagating QLCS that tracks south through central and southern OK into at least north TX Friday evening into Friday night. A transition to more of a damaging wind threat is expected with that storm-mode evolution. ...East Texas to north Florida... Late-evening water vapor imagery indicates a vorticity lobe pivoting through the southeastern periphery of the northern Mexico upper low. That disturbance is expected to progress into south-central TX Friday morning, with a downstream belt of low-level warm advection fostering scattered storms from late morning through the afternoon from the upper TX coast to north FL. Additional storms may also develop from the vicinity of the front south along the east-coast sea breeze in the northeast FL Peninsula. Much of the thunderstorm activity from the upper TX coast into southern parts of LA, MS, and AL is likely to be slightly elevated to the north of the stalled front off the coast. RAP and NAM-based forecast soundings indicate the presence of a moist environment with MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. However, mid-level lapse rates are expected to be weak, which may tend to limit updraft strength and storm organization, despite the presence of 40-50 kt effective bulk shear. As such, a level 1/Marginal Risk has been maintained with the expectation of isolated occurrences of large hail and/or locally damaging wind gusts. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out with any storms closer to the coast, which could become rooted in a moist and modestly sheared boundary layer. Farther to the east across north FL, afternoon storms are expected to be surface-based in the vicinity of the front and east-coast sea breeze. Model soundings depict a very moist environment with tall, relatively skinny CAPE profiles with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. The presence of 50-60 kt of effective bulk shear will be more than sufficient to support some supercell structures capable of hail and locally damaging wind gusts. An additional round of mainly elevated thunderstorms appears possible Friday night across portions of the lower-MS Valley with an attendant risk for isolated, large hail and/or locally strong wind gusts. ...South-central Texas... Forcing for ascent associated with the lead vorticity maximum mentioned in the previous section may contribute to the development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms from the mid/lower Rio Grande Valley into south-central TX from late morning into afternoon. However, relatively strong capping evident in RAP-based soundings cast uncertainty on eventual storm coverage, and as such, a level 1/Marginal Risk will be maintained. The overall environment will support supercell storm modes with an attendant risk for large to very large hail and locally strong wind gusts, given storm initiation and sustenance. ..Mead/Halbert.. 05/08/2026 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]