BBS: TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto: MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De: COD Weather Processor
Data: Mon, 18 May 2026 10:03:41 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 181003
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-181500-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0182
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
602 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026
Areas affected...eastern KS into western/southwestern MO
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 181000Z - 181500Z
Summary...While some uncertainty remains, concerns are increasing
for possible flash flooding later this morning over
western/southwestern MO into portions of eastern KS. Hourly
rainfall of 1 to 2+ inches and 3 to 4 inches in 3 hours will be
possible through 15Z (10 AM CDT).
Discussion...0930Z radar imagery and surface observations showed
that the southwestern end of an elongated outflow boundary has
stalled over central KS, while it continued to steadily advance
southeastward through MO. Showers and thunderstorms continued to
develop on the cool side of the boundary over eastern KS and
central MO as a strong southerly low level jet (LLJ) over KS/OK/MO
overruns the well-defined boundary. While the LLJ has weakened and
veered some over the central KS/OK border (less favorable angle to
the outflow boundary), some recent strengthening was observed at
the KINX VAD wind at 09Z to over 70 kt (but it as backed off a bit
since then). Meanwhile, disorganized shower/thunderstorm activity
has picked up over the past 45 minutes over southwestern MO,
perhaps aided by lift ahead of a vort max observed lifting NNE
from the southern OK/AR border on water vapor imagery. Steep
mid-level lapse rates of 7 to 8+ C/km were contributing to sizable
MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg from southeastern KS into central MO. Aloft,
flow remained highly diffluent between the polar and sub-tropical
jet streams aloft.
While recent runs of the HRRR and RRFS have struggled to properly
handle the outflow boundary's southward propagation, they have
been consistent with an uptick in convective vigor over the next
3-6 hours, favoring the southwestern flank of the outflow near the
southern KS/MO border. It is here that the LLJ (though weakening)
will focus from northeastern OK into southwestern MO into and atop
the KS/MO outflow boundary. The environment will favor training
with 1 to 2+ inches of rain in an hour and potential for 3 to 4
inches of rain in 3 hours or less. While flash flood guidance is
quite high over much of the region, some limited/isolated flash
flood potential will exist through 15Z and perhaps continue into
the early afternoon.
Otto
...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_UvjHrcgw5M0uUTr5HEaIVMm2x5FP0eHz_MxqwBVy80NNb9mokYis-w2AcVN15ETHQ0n=
veVfgwkacB-bhK5SD-Y-Bp0$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...SGF...TOP...
ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 39039508 39009309 38669248 38179217 37279244=20
36919354 37219542 37739683 37789774 38199784=20
38789717 38949649=20
=3D =3D =3D
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