BBS:      TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto:  MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De:       COD Weather Processor
Data:     Thu, 21 May 2026 17:06:44 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 211706
FFGMPD
TXZ000-212304-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0203
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
105 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

Areas affected...portions of west Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211704Z - 212304Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding will remain possible within an
axis generally extending from near Midland to near San Angelo and
San Saba.

Discussion...Scattered convection continues to focus along a
subtle surface boundary in the general vicinity of Midland to San
Angelo to near San Saba.  Heating south of this boundary has
enabled 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE to develop with minimal inhibition,
supporting continued convection. Additionally, cool easterly
low-level trajectories and continued rainfall along and north of
the boundary was likely acting as a reinforcing mechanism to
continue maintenance of the boundary and continued updrafts.=20
Modest storm motions and backbuilding was supporting occasional
areas of 1 inch/hr rain rates to materialize with the most
persistent activity.  These rain rates were approaching FFG
thresholds (around 1.5 inch/hr) on a localized basis.

Rainfall was occurring on ground conditions that are likely
sensitive from prior rainfall over the region in the last 72 hours
or so.  Isolated instances of flash flooding cannot be completely
ruled out in this regime.  While the persistence of this
convection regime is uncertain (and likely modulated by the
persistence and movement of the low-level boundary spawning the
convection across the region), models are generally consistent in
maintaining thunderstorm activity through the afternoon amid
southwesterly flow aloft.  It is also worth noting that slightly
lower FFGs (around 1 inch/hr) exists generally from San Angelo to
Junction (just south of ongoing activity), which may represent a
slightly higher flash flood threat if heavier rain rates
materialize there.

Cook=20

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!94vsFyB58N6FlZzS3GXISzDBy84vGqb5ZhF1S8tquMYOC8itHL1ft6nW4mxkhDzjjcA3=
XEYMxHG7vD5Rrz7CUAOpJVc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...LUB...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   33150160 32850033 31789879 31049845 30359895=20
            30119970 30330071 31260172 32020240 32490268=20
            32830244=20

=3D =3D =3D
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