BBS: TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto: MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De: COD Weather Processor
Data: Thu, 21 May 2026 20:17:09 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 212017
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-220215-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0205
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
416 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026
Areas affected...portions of Oklahoma and western north Texas
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 212015Z - 220215Z
Summary...Slow-moving thunderstorms are producing isolated spots
of rainfall rates approaching 2-3 inches/hr at times. Flash
flooding is possible on an isolated basis through 02Z/9p central.
Discussion...A complicated surface pattern exists across much of
Oklahoma currently. Prior moderate to heavy rainfall has resulted
in an expansive cold pool anchored across central Oklahoma as of
20Z. On the southern and eastern peripheries of this cold pool,
surface heating and subtle confluence along differential heating
zones has led to scattered thunderstorm development. The
pre-convective airmass supporting heavy rainfall is characterized
by 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 1.5+ inch PW values, while weak
mid/upper steering flow has caused slow and at times erratic cell
motions, further promoting heavy rainfall. As of 20Z, the
heaviest rainfall was located near from the Wichita Mountains of
southwest Oklahoma southward through western north Texas and also
near McAllister and Okmulgee. FFG thresholds vary widely across
the region, but are lowest from north-central Texas through
eastern Oklahoma (around 1.5.2 inch/hr) and near 2.5 inch/hr
elsewhere across the discussion area. These FFG thresholds were
being exceeded on an isolated basis.
Overall trends will continue for at least a few hours, with very
slow/erratic movement and perhaps isolated upscale growth at
times. It appears that convection across southwestern Oklahoma
and western north Texas may prompt enough overturning with time to
stabilize the low level airmass and lessen the flash flood risk,
though this process may take some time to play out. Convection
over eastern Oklahoma may have greater longevity with a broader
pool of instability across that part of the state east of the
aforementioned central Oklahoma cold pool. Flash flooding will be
possible through 02Z/9p central.
Cook
...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9eem0gqBZ1QQPXCa5QlbilGhP1dPvi8_YngFOhgFdyjk_j9M5f3K7H8Pgoem8aPNb755=
-BW6RSihhls-cmsIBnMPoCg$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...ICT...LUB...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 37109630 36959488 35519453 34049465 33359645=20
32549786 32679963 33770046 34320034 34929972=20
35189882 35149795 35349757 36069754 36799728=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20
=3D =3D =3D
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