BBS:      TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto:  MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De:       COD Weather Processor
Data:     Thu, 21 May 2026 21:41:17 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 212141
FFGMPD
TXZ000-220338-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0206
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
539 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

Areas affected...portions of western and central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 212138Z - 220338Z

Summary...Thunderstorms continue to increase in coverage over
sensitive areas from prior rainfall and terrain.  Eventually,
urban areas near Austin, San Antonio, and Waco may be impacted.=20
Flash flooding is likely.

Discussion...Over the past hour or so, thunderstorms have
increased in intensity and coverage primarily across the Texas
Hill Country.  These storms are likely responding to a couple of
changes in the thermodynamic environment: 1) heating of a moist
airmass southeast of ongoing convection, 2) recharge of mid-level
lapse rates from the EML originating over the southern Rockies,
and 3) subtle shortwave troughs aloft forcing ascent and aiding in
deep convective development.  Weak low-level shear profiles
suggest that cells will continue to grow upscale into short linear
segments, but lingering boundaries from prior convection across
the region will also allow for convective mergers to occur as
well.  The end result of this pattern will be continued
development of areas of 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates over sensitive
regions from prior rainfall/wet soils, terrain, and eventually
urban surface in the Austin/San Antonio/I-35 vicinity.  Given
ongoing trends, a greater likelihood of flash flooding exists,
with locally significant impacts possible.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7N3Zlz5LwXvP2OWRSWQUuLF_b-5pSjapIbqCSdDzSWjCC9xgy7gjbjJT2egs9tm716TJ=
m5IobS1V_2a7P3881PHwdoA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   32449676 31559583 29859604 28969855 29340094=20
            30300207 31280174 31420055 31749905 32319814=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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