BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok De: COD Weather Processor Data: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 05:58:47 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS02 KWNS 290558 SWODY2 SPC AC 290556 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the upper Mississippi River Valley to Lower Michigan late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude upper wave is forecast to progress along the U.S./Canadian border Monday through early Tuesday morning. Ahead of this wave, a surface cyclone will steadily intensify across the Plains as it migrates towards the upper MS Valley. Northward moisture return over the next 48 hours ahead of the surface low will likely result in mid to upper 50 dewpoints reaching the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes region by early evening. Concurrently, westerly flow aloft will advect 7-8 C/km lapse rates eastward towards the Great Lakes region. This combination of low-level moistening and steepening lapse rates aloft will yield a buoyant air mass within the warm conveyor region of the developing cyclone. Capping and mostly dry low-level conditions will preclude thunderstorm development during the day. After 00 UTC, a strengthening of the low-level jet will augment low-level moistening and isentropic ascent between 925-850 mb across the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes region. Thunderstorm development is expected between the 03-06 UTC period across northeast IA into southern WI/northern IL along the warm frontal zone. Westerly effective bulk shear values on the order of 30-40 knots will likely support storm organization, including the potential for elevated supercells initially, with an attendant large hail risk. With time, storm motions along the zonal frontal zone will promote upscale growth into one or more clusters as convection spreads east into MI. Some damaging wind threat may materialize with this activity depending on its proximity to the surface warm front. A more isolated hail threat appears likely across northern lower MI after 06 UTC as more focused isentropic ascent spreads north. Although convection will be elevated, elongated hodographs through the CAPE-bearing layer will promote organized cells with mainly a large hail threat. ..Moore.. 03/29/2026 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]