BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok De: COD Weather Processor Data: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 07:25:46 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS03 KWNS 290725 SWODY3 SPC AC 290724 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected through the day and into the early evening hours Tuesday across the Great Lakes region. ...Synopsis... A surface low is forecast to deepen across the central/northern Plains through the day Monday ahead of a low-amplitude upper wave. By early Tuesday, this low will begin accelerating eastward, reaching southern Quebec by 12 UTC Wednesday. A cold front trailing the surface cyclone will push south into the Plains and eastward across the Great Lakes/OH Valley. Thunderstorm potential will be most pronounced along and ahead of the front, though more isolated thunderstorms will be possible along a dryline across portions of TX, across portions of the Southeast, and over the northern Great Basin. ...Great Lakes... Residual thunderstorms from Monday night may be ongoing by 12 UTC across the Great Lakes region along and north of the surface warm front. Most guidance suggests that northward moisture advection will occur ahead of the approaching cold front as the surface low lifts east/northeast with MLCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/kg likely by 21-00 UTC. Additional thunderstorm development is expected along the front by early afternoon, and 35-45 knot effective bulk shear should promote organized convection - most likely in the form of organized clusters and/or linear segments. Large hail and severe winds will most likely be the predominant hazards given the expectation for clustered/linear storm modes, though some tornado threat may emerge across the lower Great Lakes region where low-level SRH will be regionally greatest on the northeastern fringe of the returning moisture. ...Southern Plains... A weak surface trough/dryline will likely emerge across the TX Panhandle/western OK southward into west-central TX by late afternoon as a weak lee low deepens over the southern High Plains. Richer low-level moisture will likely be displaced to the east away from the boundary, and warm temperatures at the base of an EML will most likely preclude thunderstorm development until the arrival of the cold front Tuesday evening. However, a few deterministic solutions hint that diurnal heating may be strong enough to support isolated convection along the dryline by late afternoon. Wind profiles across this region hint that organized thunderstorms are possible and could pose a severe threat. While this potential is noted, ensemble support for this scenario is low, and any convection that does develop will most likely struggle to be maintained owing to weak forcing for ascent and fairly dry low/mid-level conditions. ..Moore.. 03/29/2026 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]