BBS:      TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto:  MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De:       COD Weather Processor
Data:     Wed, 1 Apr 2026 02:56:58 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 010256
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-010855-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0069
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1055 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Areas affected...Central and Eastern Indiana...Ohio...Western
Pennsylvania

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 010255Z - 010855Z

SUMMARY...Organized clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms
will continue to track across the Ohio Valley overnight. Training
of convective cells will lead to additional localized rainfall
amounts of 2 to 3 inches. Given wet antecedent conditions,
isolated to scattered flash flooding is likely, particularly in
urban areas and locations that have seen prior rainfall.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar mosaics indicate a broad, active
corridor of convection extending from central Indiana through Ohio
and into western Pennsylvania. This activity is being driven by a
persistent 40 to 50 kt west-southwesterly low-level jet that is
maintaining strong moisture convergence and isentropic ascent over
convectively induced outflow boundaries south of a slow-moving and
largely stalled synoptic front.

While absolute instability and moisture are modest, the highly
favorable kinematics and the continuous convective regeneration
along these boundaries are resulting in localized pockets of
cell-training. Current MRMS instantaneous rainfall rates are
generally 0.50 to 1.0 inch per hour, but are peaking as high as
1.0 to 1.5 inches per hour occasionally with the strongest and
most anchored cores.

High-resolution guidance, including the 18Z HREF and latest HRRR
runs, indicates this low-level jet will remain robust through much
of the overnight hours before gradually weakening after 09Z. As a
result, this regenerative convective threat will tend to be
sustained at least over the next several hours. In time,
additional slackening of the instability will tend to weaken the
activity and lessen the rain rates. Nevertheless, additional
localized rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches are expected along the
primary training axes overnight.

Recent rainfall has left antecedent soil conditions wet to
saturated across portions of the region, promoting significantly
lower FFG thresholds. The combination of primed basins, fairly
efficient rainfall rates, and rainfall duration will lead to areas
of rapid runoff. As a result, isolated to scattered instances of
flash flooding are considered likely, with an elevated threat for
urban corridors and the sensitive terrain of western Pennsylvania.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5Cqq3Qkxda1cDhhl-m2210Q2IB8-1NPKXUSotooev16O4acN3ywmZbbQOEeHSEHgNphV=
lpQWRHzZa9mdWjIbBM7F6J0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...ILN...IND...IWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   41917964 41667841 41117789 40387837 40058033=20
            39898267 39958431 40068543 40418605 40978622=20
            41488551 41678458 41628250 41868093=20

=3D =3D =3D
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