BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok De: COD Weather Processor Data: Wed, 1 Apr 2026 07:30:40 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS03 KWNS 010730 SWODY3 SPC AC 010729 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon and into the evening hours across Iowa southward into the southern Plains. Very large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... Medium and long-range guidance continue to show reasonably good alignment in the progression of an upper wave into the central CONUS through the day Friday into early Saturday. Ahead of this wave, robust cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central Plains along a residual baroclinic zone that should be draped from the Plains eastward into the OH Valley in the wake of a leading system on Wed/Thu. Northward advection of seasonally rich low-level moisture (dewpoints in the low 60s) ahead of the intensifying low and attendant cold front will establish a fairly broad warm sector from the Midwest southward into the southern Plains. Strong to severe thunderstorms will likely develop along and ahead of the cold front through late afternoon and early evening with a threat for all convective hazards. ...Iowa/northern Missouri... The most robust convective environment will likely emerge across northern MO into southern and central IA by late Friday afternoon. Here, strong moisture return behind a northward lifting warm front should support MLCAPE values upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg. Strong synoptic ascent ahead of the surface low and ejecting upper trough will erode warm sector inhibition, and closer proximity to the upper jet will allow for 35-45 knot effective bulk shear values nearly orthogonal to the approaching cold front. This should favor initially discrete cells capable of large hail as well as tornadoes given forecast effective SRH values on the order of 200-300 m2/s2. With time, strong frontal forcing should promote upscale growth with an increase in the severe wind threat, though some extended-range CAM guidance hints a line-preceding supercells within the weakly capped warm sector (though confidence in this scenario is low). Regardless, convection traversing the best CAPE/shear parameter space in the region should yield a higher potential for severe thunderstorms, warranting the introduction of 30% risk probabilities. ...Kansas into Oklahoma... Further south/southwest, rapid upscale growth is anticipated along a southeastward pushing cold front by late afternoon from eastern KS into northern OK. Storm motions and deep-layer flow more parallel to the initiating boundary may result in initially slow southeastward propagation of the convective line, though more substantial progression of the line is likely by early evening as the nocturnal jet slowly strengthens. Regardless, a severe wind threat appears likely with this activity. ...Southwest Oklahoma into Western Texas... A dryline will likely be draped from western OK southward into western TX. Although forcing for ascent will be weak with southward extent, weak capping and ample diurnal heating should support at least isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon. While low-level wind shear may be somewhat marginal, forecast soundings depict elongated hodographs favorable for splitting supercells capable of producing large to very large hail. ..Moore.. 04/01/2026 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]