BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion De: COD Weather Processor Data: Wed, 1 Apr 2026 08:03:32 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- FOUS30 KWBC 010803 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 403 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026 Day 1 Valid 12Z Wed Apr 01 2026 - 12Z Thu Apr 02 2026 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI... The latest hi-res and global guidance noted a south/southwest-ward shift of the axis of highest precipitation to central Oklahoma to northern Missouri from its previous position of northeast Kansas into east-central Iowa where areal averages of 1 to 3 inches are expected. There remains a decent signal for localized 3+ inches in the vicinity of the Topeka-Kansas City metros. The Slight Risk area was adjusted to now cover eastern Oklahoma to northern Missouri while the Marginal Risk was maintained from the Texas=20 Hill Country to the Mississippi/Ohio Valleys. A prominent warm-sector will materialize from west-central Texas=20 into Missouri with a surface low forecast to be positioned over the Central Plains by Wednesday afternoon. Several shortwaves will=20 eject northeast within and ahead of the mean trough leading to=20 multiple waves of rainfall from the south-central Plains into the=20 Middle Mississippi Valley. Some training potential, leading to 1-3 inch areal average amounts in this region, with some potential for isolated higher amounts of 3+ inches. Farther south, a long axis=20 of convection is expected from Texas to Kansas along the cold=20 front, but storms in this area should be more progressive and soils are even more dry than to the north.=20 Campbell/Santorelli Day 2 Valid 12Z Thu Apr 02 2026 - 12Z Fri Apr 03 2026 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA, NORTHERN ILLINOIS, WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN... The front will span from the Mid-Atlantic back into the Ohio and=20 Mid-Mississippi Valleys during this period. Models have persisted in placing the precipitation shield over much of the Upper Great=20 Lakes/Upper Midwest region. The moisture and instability along with the upper-level support could lead to flooding concerns across=20 parts of the Great Lakes region. Colder air filtering across the=20 northern tier will allow for wintry weather concerns in the Great=20 Lakes to Interior Northeast thus limiting the area where flash=20 flooding may occur/cause impacts. Some areas could see=20 transitioning precipitation types throughout the event. A Marginal=20 Risk area remains in effect for portions of southern Wisconsin,=20 Lower Michigan and northern Illinois where precipitation is most=20 likely to stay mostly/all rain. Campbell/Santorelli Day 3 Valid 12Z Fri Apr 03 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 04 2026 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... Strong to severe thunderstorms along with embedded heavy rainfall will track across the Southern/Central Plains into the Midwest during this period. Moisture (with PWs over the 90th, perhaps 95th percentile) and instability are likely to pool along and ahead of=20 the associated cold front and produce widespread convection. Storms likely beginning in the afternoon are expected to get=20 reinforced through the evening and night hours as a low level jet=20 picks up ahead of the cold front. A Slight Risk was maintained and adjusted to span from northern Texas to southwest Missouri.=20 Campbell Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_DDOFyh5W4ZoUwsmxrFJaVyJxgPWzWk4w3A3rfsZtRry= 4JheYRZDCKIJev3IFehlIwS2UwDH3QK9tv-vGWPmr07B-dU$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_DDOFyh5W4ZoUwsmxrFJaVyJxgPWzWk4w3A3rfsZtRry= 4JheYRZDCKIJev3IFehlIwS2UwDH3QK9tv-vGWPmXsRIysk$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_DDOFyh5W4ZoUwsmxrFJaVyJxgPWzWk4w3A3rfsZtRry= 4JheYRZDCKIJev3IFehlIwS2UwDH3QK9tv-vGWPmcm2RXz8$=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]