BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok De: COD Weather Processor Data: Fri, 17 Apr 2026 17:32:19 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS02 KWNS 171732 SWODY2 SPC AC 171730 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail will be possible on Saturday across the upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. Isolated severe hail is also possible across parts of central Texas. ...Synopsis... An amplified midlevel trough will advance eastward from the upper MS Valley to the Great Lakes/OH Valley on Saturday. At the same time, a cold front extending from lower MI south-southwestward into south-central TX will move east-southeastward across the OH, TN, and lower MS Valley during the day. Remnant showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing along the eastward-moving front at the start of the period, though this lingering/early-morning activity is generally expected to be sub-severe. ...Upper OH Valley and Central Appalachians... As the cold front continues eastward into the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians into the afternoon, diurnal heating amid a narrow corridor of upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints will contribute to marginal surface-based destabilization immediately ahead of the front. This, combined with around 40-50 kt of effective shear oriented oblique to the front, should favor a mix of organized clusters and perhaps a couple supercell structures -- posing a risk of scattered damaging wind gusts and isolated severe hail. Additionally, a remnant 30-40 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet will yield modest low-level shear/hodograph curvature, and a tornado or two will be possible with the more organized storms. ...Central TX... High-resolution guidance is in relatively good agreement, depicting elevated thunderstorms evolving behind the cold front during the morning and early afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop the frontal surface and elongated/straight hodographs (around 50 kt of effective shear) could lead to isolated severe hail with any elevated supercells that evolve. ...Lower MS and TN Valleys... A couple strong storms will also be possible immediately ahead of the front as it impinges on the lower MS and TN Valleys during the afternoon, given around 40 kt of deep-layer shear and a weakly unstable air mass. However, displacement from the deep-layer forcing for ascent accompanying the trough, and skinny CAPE profiles, limits confidence in the severe risk here -- precluding probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/17/2026 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]