BBS:      TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto:  MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De:       COD Weather Processor
Data:     Fri, 17 Apr 2026 23:37:15 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 172337
FFGMPD
MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-180434-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0117
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
735 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Areas affected...central/northern Illinois, much of Wisconsin,
upper Peninsula of Michigan, western Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 172334Z - 180434Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues especially across
Wisconsin and northern Illinois.  This threat will shift eastward
through the evening hours.

Discussion...A mix of linear and clustered convection continues to
migrate east/northeastward across the discussion area.  Areas of
repeating/training were noted across far southern Wisconsin - and
that area remains sensitive from prior heavy rainfall over the
past several days.  FFGs near/downstream of ongoing convection in
southern Wisconsin are in the 1 inch/hr range (locally lower),
with urban impacts from heavy rain expected in the Milwaukee area
over the next 1-2 hours or so.  Flash flooding remains likely
there.

Farther north, scattered convection has matured over central
Wisconsin just ahead of a synoptic cold front despite widespread
convective overturning.  Instability profiles remain supportive of
strong/deep convection in the short term (next couple hours),
though the longevity of this convection is in question with
eastward extent.  Nevertheless, widespread impacts from recent
heavy rain, swollen watersheds, and snow melt have left the region
very sensitive (FFGs near 0 in the UP of Michigan, also <1 inch/hr
elsewhere in parts of northeastern Wisconsin), and localized flash
flooding remains possible.

Cells in the southern part of this elongated conpmex (exiting
southeastern Iowa) are more linear in nature, though a few cells
have developed over west-central Illinois that should merge with
this line over the next few hours.  Ground conditions aren't as
sensitive in central Illinois compared to farther north.  Flash
flooding may be more isolated/dependent on local rain rate
enhancement from these mergers.

Eventually, this elongated complex will shift eastward through
northeastern Illinois and into western Indiana, with at least
isolated flash flood potential continuing through 05Z/midnight
central.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!75sQHgPWBmHMjZ1Iw9XEB_ZKL_6aH3-pygDpV2_kNNOuyft9zc_2YNqGB8JtW2UbmLfK=
YzgLHaEoDJkopQwKKRSvHJA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...DVN...GRB...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...
LSX...MKX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   46768913 46698706 46338613 44718704 42648721=20
            41438661 40218642 39408761 39449008 40039107=20
            40969098 42259046 43959061 45999024=20

=3D =3D =3D
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