BBS: TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto: MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De: COD Weather Processor
Data: Sat, 18 Apr 2026 00:43:51 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 180043
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-180641-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0118
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
842 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Areas affected...northern/central/eastern Oklahoma, southeastern
Kansas, southern/central Missouri, northwestern Arkansas
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 180041Z - 180641Z
Summary...Isolated instances of flash flooding remain possible
through 06Z/1a central.
Discussion...Ongoing convection has largely organized into an
extensive linear complex extending from near Osage Beach, MO
west-southwestward through Ponca City and Gage, OK. The storms
are mostly undercut by composite synoptic front/outflow, although
a few elements in central Missouri and far north-central Oklahoma
remain surface-based. The storms are migrating eastward between
35-45 knots while exhibiting localized training and areas of 1-2
inch/hr rain rates at times. These rates should be enough for
isolated flash flooding as FFG thresholds are generally in the
1-1.5 inch/hr range especially from north-central Oklahoma
eastward.
Storms will be maintained through the overnight hours by abundant
instability (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) and strengthening low-level
flow oriented perpendicular to the aforementioned front/outflow,
maintaining robust updrafts and occasional training. Cells may
tend to weaken some in east-central Missouri, but re-development
over western Oklahoma near a front/dryline intersection should
maintain the heavy rain risk through at least 06Z/1a central
tonight. Flash flooding is expected on at least an isolated basis
where training is most pronounced, with terrain influences in
southwestern Missouri also likely playing a role in enhancing
flash flood risk. Lastly, models suggest that the ongoing
convective band will gradually develop southeastward toward the
I-40 corridor in Oklahoma through the night.
Cook
...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8uiQ__KyH0yp5gD3LVLtiqN8N1vgyEat01kFbc0VsJSyK8Qphlh3hQqt4IJgyiwUMQIe=
xQ9i_b7j_xr2DclgdMvU51Y$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...OUN...PAH...SGF...TOP...
TSA...
ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 39309207 38969054 37709043 36569135 35499386=20
34529681 34489883 35219970 36259956 36939828=20
37899631 38929406=20
=3D =3D =3D
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