BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook De: COD Weather Processor Data: Sat, 9 May 2026 20:00:32 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS01 KWNS 092000 SWODY1 SPC AC 091958 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND CENTRAL TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly large to very large hail and locally damaging winds appear possible for parts of western/central Oklahoma this afternoon through tonight. Isolated hail and damaging winds may also occur across portions of the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast, central High Plains, Great Lakes, and Mid-Atlantic. ...20z Update... 15% wind risk probabilities were introduced to the eastern shore of Lake Erie downstream of a developing squall line. Although buoyancy across this region remains fairly weak (around 500 J/kg MLCAPE per recent mesoanalysis estimates), boundary-layer mixing is noted along the eastern shore that may facilitate downward momentum transfer as the squall line moves onshore. Additionally, latest time-lagged HRRR/RRFS ensembles have shown a consistent signal for 45-60 mph gusts associated with the line during the late afternoon/evening hours, hinting that a localized corridor of higher wind potential may materialize. ...Northern Gulf Coast/Northern Florida... Severe probabilities along the northern Gulf Coast and across northern Florida have been reduced based on recent convective trends. Latest radar/satellite imagery depicts a frontal boundary pushing south into the northern Gulf with limited MUCAPE noted in recent mesoanalyses north of the boundary. Across northern FL, convection developing along the frontal zone has struggled to maintain intensity - likely owing to marginal forcing for ascent and poor mid-level lapse rates sampled by a recent 18 UTC JAX sounding. Severe wind probabilities have largely been adjusted across northeastern FL to reflect where stronger heating/better buoyancy will likely support more robust updrafts through late afternoon. ...Eastern Texas Panhandle... Severe hail/wind probabilities have been adjusted west from western OK into the eastern TX Panhandle where dewpoints are climbing into the low/mid 50s and shallow cumulus is beginning to develop along the dryline. These trends hint that the severe risk may emerge slightly further west than depicted by previous forecasts and guidance. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion below and MCDs 684, 685, and 686 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/09/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026/ ...Southern/Central Plains... High-based convection is forecast to develop this afternoon across southeast WY and vicinity as a mid-level shortwave trough progresses southeastward across the northern/central High Plains. While low-level moisture is expected to remain quite limited, cool temperatures aloft and a well-mixed boundary layer will support a risk for isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps some hail with the more robust convection. This activity should spread southeastward across parts of the central High Plains through the afternoon and evening, while continuing to pose an isolated severe threat. Low-level moisture is somewhat greater across the southern High Plains, but still quite shallow per 12Z observed soundings from OUN/FWD. While large-scale ascent will remain weaker with southward extent through the day across this region, a surface dryline will extend across the eastern TX Panhandle vicinity by peak afternoon heating. Most guidance continues to suggest an uncapped and moderately unstable airmass will exist along/east of this dryline across western OK. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may initiate by late afternoon/early evening. If this occurs, then a few supercells capable of producing mainly large to very large hail appear possible. The well-mixed boundary layer and shallow low-level moisture suggest a low risk for a tornado or two through early evening, before low-level shear gradually increases through late evening. There is also a signal for convection to form/spread southeastward from KS/northern OK into central OK late tonight/early Sunday morning. If this scenario occurs, then a severe wind threat may exist with any sustained clusters given a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. ...Coastal Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A weak mid-level trough over central/east TX late this morning will continue to move eastward into the western Gulf through this evening. Stronger convection across deep south TX has recently moved offshore, but additional thunderstorms may develop this afternoon across parts of coastal/southeast TX into LA in close proximity to the mid-level trough. Cool temperatures aloft atop a moist low-level airmass will support moderate to locally strong instability. This coupled with sufficient deep-layer shear may foster modest updraft organization and an isolated risk for large hail and damaging winds with the stronger cores that form. Across the central Gulf Coast states, widespread precipitation and ongoing convection has reinforced the surface front near the coast. Any appreciable risk for occasional damaging winds should remain along/south of this convectively reinforced boundary through the afternoon. Therefore, the Marginal Risk has been adjusted southward with this update. ...Great Lakes... Beneath upper troughing centered over Ontario, a surface cold front will advance east-southeastward across the Great Lakes through the period. Only modest low-level moisture (generally low to mid 50s surface dewpoints) will be in place ahead of this front from southeast Lower MI into the lower Great Lakes. Still, strong mid-level flow may be mixed towards the surface as low-level lapse rates continue to steepen this afternoon. Accordingly, thunderstorms that develop along/ahead of the cold front should pose a threat for at least isolated damaging winds, and perhaps some hail with any marginal supercell structures. The overall thermodynamic environment appears too limited to justify greater severe wind probabilities at this time. ...Mid-Atlantic... Given ongoing cloud cover and precipitation, confidence remains fairly low that sufficient instability to support sustained surface-based convection will exist this afternoon across the eastern Mid-Atlantic. Still, a low chance for a stronger thunderstorm or two may focus across parts of NJ and vicinity, where weak instability should overlap with modest deep-layer shear. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]