BBS:      TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto:  MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De:       COD Weather Processor
Data:     Sat, 23 May 2026 17:53:56 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 231753
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-232345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0218
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
152 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Areas affected...Southeast AR...Central and Southern
MS...West-Central AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 231752Z - 232345Z

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding will be
possible this afternoon and early this evening from showers and
thunderstorms with high rainfall rates capable of reaching 2 to 3
inches/hour.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR/WV suite shows a cold-topped MCS
and embedded MCV continuing to advance east across central LA with
recent radar trends showing downstream convective development
across areas of southeast AR through central and southern MS. This
energy will be interacting over the next several hours with a
strongly unstable and moist environment characterized by MLCAPE
values of 2000 to 3000+ J/kg and PWs over 1.75 inches.

There is evidence of a surface trough across south-central MS
which recently seems to be facilitating some of the development
and expansion of convection across this region. The latest HRRR
and RRFS guidance suggests rainfall coverage increasing over the
next few hours as the upstream energy with the MCV approaches, and
there is likely to be areas of relatively concentrated convection
by later this afternoon that will be capable of producing very
high rainfall rates. Given the thermodynamic environment, there
will be some rainfall rates likely reaching 2 to 3 inches/hour.

The high rates and relatively concentrated nature of the
convection may support some rainfall totals that reach 3 to 4+
inches by early this evening. Recent rainfall across portions of
the region have allowed for the antecedent environment to become
more sensitive, with increasing soil moisture concentrations. As
such, the additional rainfall this afternoon may favor a concern
for isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding. This would also
include concerns for some of the more sensitive urban areas.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-xFujvhWvvLzNFZ1UlbBP_b4zFp39b1trxk9DdKvh_l8QF6cBvQ4UvK2w3qdnzoWc3NP=
WYce8OlhfKTX9TbjcWsXkmo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LZK...MOB...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   34119119 33279025 33098908 32808816 32478781=20
            31938776 31568825 31398904 31459029 31749128=20
            32279185 32659211 33599235 34109210=20

=3D =3D =3D
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