BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok De: COD Weather Processor Data: Sat, 23 May 2026 19:27:28 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS03 KWNS 231927 SWODY3 SPC AC 231926 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe-thunderstorm potential currently appears low for Monday. Isolated strong storms may develop across parts of the Great Plains, Upper Midwest, and Southeast. ...Synopsis... Little change to the overall pattern expected across the CONUS on Monday. A very slow-moving mid/upper low/trough is expected to remain in the vicinity of east TX/western LA, which will maintain potential for scattered to widespread thunderstorms across parts of the Gulf Coast and Southeast. Another slow-moving mid/upper trough will support thunderstorm potential across parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies. A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move into the Pacific Northwest during the afternoon and evening. ...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region... Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop Monday afternoon from parts of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, though some uncertainty remains regarding the quality of low-level moisture across this region. Modest west-northwesterly midlevel flow will result in 30-40 kt of effective shear across parts of MN/WI and Upper MI, but confidence in storm development within this conditionally favorable environment is low, with midlevel height rises and generally minimal large-scale ascent expected across the region. Forcing will also be weak into parts of the central Plains, but strong heating and presence of a remnant surface boundary may support isolated storm development from late afternoon into the evening. A threat for localized hail and strong to severe gusts could accompany the strongest storms, but weak deep-layer shear and uncertainty regarding storm coverage limit confidence in organized severe potential at this time. ...Southern NM into west TX... Isolated strong storms could develop on Monday from parts of southern NM into west TX, in advance of the mid/upper trough over the Southwest. At this time, it appears that the stronger forcing associated with the upper trough will remain displaced from the richer moisture across parts of central/southwest TX through most of the period. However, a faster trough ejection and/or more substantial moisture return could result in an isolated severe threat during the late afternoon and evening. ...Parts of the Gulf Coast/Southeast... Modest enhancement to midlevel flow may continue across parts of the Gulf Coast and Southeast, to the east of the persistent mid/upper low/trough over east TX. Depending on the evolution of D1/D2 convection and any MCV development, a low-probability severe threat could evolve over some part of this region, but confidence is much too low to include probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 05/23/2026 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]