BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook De: COD Weather Processor Data: Sat, 23 May 2026 19:29:57 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS01 KWNS 231929 SWODY1 SPC AC 231928 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible through evening, mainly across the Lower Mississippi Valley and parts of West Texas. Other more isolated severe storms are possible in portions of the Southeast, Ohio, and the central High Plains. ...20z Update... The only changes to the 20z Day 1 Outlook are to remove probabilities across parts of TX/LA/MS in the wake of an northeastward-advancing MCS. Otherwise, forecast reasoning remains similar to the previous outlook, detailed below. For more detailed information on short term severe potential along the TX Coast and the central High Plains, reference MCDs 838 and 839. ..Leitman.. 05/23/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026/ ...Lower Mississippi Valley... An ongoing semi-well-organized cluster of storms appears to be aided by an MCV, and will likely continue east-northeastward today across the ArkLaMiss and broader parts of Mississippi, to the north of more extensive weaker convection closer to the coast in southern Louisiana. Ample heating ahead of the cluster and steepening low-level lapse rates will support wind potential aside from a modest MCV-related flow enhancement. A brief tornado could also occur, although thunderstorm wind damage is most probable. ...West Texas/Southern High Plains... Relatively weak mid-level flow and an ill-defined surface pattern aptly characterize the severe-potential setup for later today into the evening across this region. Residual low-level moisture and steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (reference the 12 UTC Midland, TX raob; 8.7 deg C/km) in combination with strong heating will result in moderate instability developing by mid-late afternoon, stronger with southward extent across the Texas South Plains into southwest Texas. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from near the Colorado/Panhandles border region southward into the Edwards Plateau. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary severe hazards. A gradual clustering is expected during the evening before this activity diminishes by late evening. ...Georgia/South Carolina... A weak mid-level disturbance will move east-northeastward today. Ahead of it, adequate heating of a moist boundary layer will yield 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by early afternoon and scattered showers/thunderstorms are forecast. Deep-layer shear will support some multicellular organization in the form of a few thunderstorm clusters. The stronger water-loaded downdrafts will potentially yield a localized wind-damage risk during the afternoon before this threat wanes by early evening. ...Central High Plains... Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon within a belt of stronger cyclonic mid-level flow associated with a north-central U.S. larger-scale mid-level trough. The 30-40 kt 500-mb flow and steepened surface to 400-mb lapse rates may support a couple of locally stronger thunderstorms late this afternoon through early evening. Locally severe hail/wind will be the threats with these storms. ...Ohio... A couple of rotating storms could develop regionally this afternoon within a belt of residually strong low-level flow. A brief/low-end tornado threat may exist. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]