BBS:      TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto:  MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De:       COD Weather Processor
Data:     Sat, 23 May 2026 20:32:12 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 232032
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-240130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0220
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
431 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Areas affected...Southwest Missouri into Kansas and Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 232030Z - 240130Z

SUMMARY...Heavy thunderstorms repeating near a frontal boundary,
bring an increasing flash flood threat into this evening over
southwest Missouri into Kansas and Arkansas. Rainfall rates up to
2 inches/hour are expected, with localized totals of 3 inches.

DISCUSSION...An MCV over northeast OK is riding along a stalling
frontal boundary over far southeast KS into central MO. The warm
sector activity extends from northwest AR up to west-central MO.
Sufficient moisture with PW of 1.5" and instability with SBCAPE of
1500 J/kg will continue to allow heavy thunderstorm development
rest of the afternoon. Light shear over the area causes slow storm
motion while southerly low level flow recharges the environment
through the frontal convergence. FFG is generally around 1.5
inches/hour which has been observed the past hour over southwest
MO. SWly jet level flow will continue to push the MCV along the
front and maintain heavy rain ahead of it into the evening.

Recent HRRR and RRFS runs do not handle the MCV well and result in
too dispersive QPF into the evening. Given radar trends and the
moist/unstable environment, localized flash flooding can be
expected into the evening hours in areas with lower FFG, urbanized
areas, and in the highest precip totals. The activity should
eventually progress east, so further discussions may be warranted
into the overnight hours.


Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-TfOJddi27ltmW5likwsam9bAO2tNIfqIk9VWDQNuV_g7ndjfLDdWo1yvtj6xwMHSTaU=
oOSfMd3JLA0U0O0XA3Kqats$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   39009285 38669251 36609311 36119357 36589439=20
            37069474 37219544 37469539 37829483 38579382=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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