BBS:      TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto:  MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De:       COD Weather Processor
Data:     Sun, 24 May 2026 00:18:37 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 240018
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-240530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0221
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
817 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Areas affected...Upper Ohio Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240016Z - 240530Z

SUMMARY...Saturated soils and additional prefrontal thunderstorms
this evening should continue to produced localized flash flooding
over the Upper Ohio Valley into the overnight.

DISCUSSION...A plume of moisture extends north up the west side of
the Appalachians and the Upper Ohio Valley west of the cold air
damming west on the east side of the Appalachians and ahead of a
cold front over northern Ohio. A moist and confluent southwesterly
low-level flow through this plume is providing 1.6" PW which is 2
standard deviations above normal over southeast OH, western WV,
into far western PA.

Warm sector MLCAPE values of 1000 J/kg and the abundant moisture
will continue to support scattered bands of heavy thunderstorms
through the evening. Deep layer unidirectional SWly flow persists
over this region which should maintain localized training of these
bands of convection. Hourly rainfall up to 1.5 to 2" is likely to
continue in training activity which is in agreement with recent
HRRR/RRFS runs. The antecedent conditions are rather wet with
flash flood guidance generally 1" or less. Therefore localized
flash flooding can be expected into the overnight. Late night
nocturnal trends may preclude the need for further discussion in
this area overnight, though that will continue to be monitored.


Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_qTo1ziUydoIoJLKNj985gDznN4aCtucEOni6CUIa39iu4qt7sOyXV8xjsIpWMs9OhT7=
z1bgPrqXS64u2i5xlZniOj4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   40638122 40428064 39978035 38938106 38068215=20
            37668342 38328420 39048362 39898219=20

=3D =3D =3D
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