BBS: TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto: MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De: COD Weather Processor
Data: Sun, 24 May 2026 01:25:42 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 240125
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-240630-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0222
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
924 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026
Areas affected...Ozarks
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 240123Z - 240630Z
SUMMARY...Heavy prefrontal thunderstorms repeating into the
overnight maintain a localized flash flood threat over southern
and northern Arkansas. Rainfall rates up to 2 inches/hour are
expected, with localized totals of 3 inches.
DISCUSSION...Outflow from earlier activity is maintaining
convergence from southerly flow and renewed growth over northwest
AR into southeastern MO. Sufficient moisture with PW of 1.5" and
instability with MUCAPE of 1000 J/kg will continue to allow heavy
thunderstorm development into the overnight. Light shear over the
area causes slow storm motion while southerly low level flow
recharges the environment through the frontal convergence. FFG is
generally higher, around 2.5 inches/hour despite this being the
flood prone Ozarks.
Recent HRRR runs have a decent handly on this ongoing activity
while the RRFS is underdoing it. Given radar trends and the
moist/unstable environment, localized flash flooding can be
expected into or through the overnight hours where highest precip
totals occur.
Jackson
...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9gQcWATB0duFocmJ93-PRp-o5AafAvFLlEM13Zxlu3UW1dJ5hY5uYQkM3N6x6okcHSFZ=
B1Y7DqnmBssIveydCnLEjmU$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...TSA...
ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 37989132 37569065 36309042 35409209 35339412=20
35899423 36369341 36859254 37359213 37909200=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20
=3D =3D =3D
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