BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook De: COD Weather Processor Data: Sun, 24 May 2026 05:57:31 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS01 KWNS 240557 SWODY1 SPC AC 240555 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the central Great Plains and Southeast today into tonight, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Discussion... Mid/upper flow is undergoing gradual amplification across the northern mid-latitude Pacific. It appears that this will continue through this period, with a fairly significant mid-level trough and associated cyclone approaching the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast by late tonight. Downstream, mid-level heights will tend to rise across the northern Rockies and much of the Missouri Valley through Upper Midwest, with troughing farther east generally receding into the eastern Canadian provinces and adjacent portions of the Northeast. In the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes, a notable mid-level high is forecast to be maintained and remain centered to the west-southwest of Bermuda. Upstream, it appears that weak upper troughing will linger across eastern Texas through the western Gulf Basin, with perhaps an associated mid-level cyclonic circulation centered across the upper Texas coastal plain, as the leading edge of broad weak troughing emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific progresses through the Southwest. As the stronger mid-latitude westerlies become increasingly confined to areas near and north of the western and central Canadian/U.S. border area, and the lower Great Lakes/Northeast, seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content will generally remain confined to the Gulf Coast states and southern Atlantic Seaboard. However, modest low-level moisture return appears probable along and east of weak lee surface troughing across the central Great Plains. ...Central Great Plains... Substantive spread remains evident within latest model output, including convection allowing guidance, concerning developments which will influence convective potential this afternoon into tonight. The risk for severe weather, in general, still seems likely to be limited by weak forcing for ascent, seasonably modest low-level moisture return, and modest to weak late afternoon into early evening deep-layer mean wind fields. However, due to veering of wind fields with height beneath modest west to northwesterly mid/upper flow, vertical shear along and east of the lee surface trough may become at least marginally sufficient for organized convection, including supercells. And any thunderstorm development persisting into mid/late evening may be augmented by a nocturnally strengthening southerly low-level jet (including 30-40 kt around 850 mb). In the presence of steep lapse rates, thermodynamic profiles probably will become supportive of storms capable of producing large hail during peak late afternoon instability into early evening, particularly where it appears shear may be strongest across parts of the middle Missouri Valley vicinity. Otherwise, widely scattered to scattered storms may pose a risk for strong to locally severe wind gusts into mid to late evening, before instability wanes and convection weakens. ...Southeast... Severe weather potential across the Gulf Coast states into Southeast today remains uncertain, with little clear signal evident in latest model output. However, a notable cluster of storms, which has weakened since becoming better organized offshore of the Louisiana coast earlier this evening, has generated a meso-beta scale lower/mid-tropospheric cyclonic vorticity center. It appears that this may migrate inland across the western Florida Panhandle vicinity near or shortly after daybreak, before continuing northeastward during the day. As it does, based on potential instability present in latest objective analysis, it could become a focus for slowly intensifying and organizing thunderstorm development which could eventually pose increasing potential to produce damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr/Chalmers.. 05/24/2026 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]