BBS: TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto: MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De: COD Weather Processor
Data: Sun, 24 May 2026 06:51:46 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 240651
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-241200-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0223
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
250 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026
Areas affected...Southeast LA...Coastal MS & AL...
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 240650Z - 241200Z
SUMMARY...Strong MCV with WAA training profiles increasing
residency and therefore overall totals to allow for rapid
inundation flooding.
DISCUSSION...KHDC shows a very mature MCV with a tight inner
convective core as well as a leading forward propagating leading
band moving through the mouth of the Mississippi River and through
the Chandeluer Islands. The strong outflow and localized pressure
falls continues to support rapidly backed low-level inflow over
the area of the north central Gulf that has remained over 80
degrees and therefore increasing downstream theta-E advection and
moisture flux.=20
The latent heat release and favorable outflow orientation to a
great outflow channel into the right entrance of the 80-90kt speed
max continues to maintain and actually recently strengthen the
MCC/MCV. RAP analysis and local observations show the downshear
WAA off the Central Gulf has increased deep layer moisture to near
2"/hr but also has pulled the instability gradient across the
Chandeleur to central MS Coast and into south-central AL with
MLCAPEs over 1500 J/kg along and downstream. This all has
sharpened the effective warm front/deformation zone increasing low
level isentropic ascent/moisture convergence along and ahead of
the dense central core. Rates of 2-2.5"/hr are likely given the
strength of the flux convergence and upward vigor of updrafts over
the next few hours. As the convection continues to expand along
the warm front, training/repeating will increase to support
increased residency for localized 2-4" totals, with and isolated
5" total possible in the 2-3 hours as it the band/core passes.=20
The limiting factors will be placement relative to the land, with
the core likely to remain SE of NOLA proper, but given deep layer
steering look to come along the MS coastal area into S Alabama,
where recent very high rainfall totals over the last 2 days or so
have saturated the upper soils. FFG values have recovered, but
given 0-40cm soil ratios, across portions of the MPD and overall
rates of warm cloud tropical rainfall could result in rapid
inundation flooding through the late overnight period and early
morning.=20=20
There is some uncertainty for trailing redevelopment South of SE
LA, where confluent rear-inflow streamers could reform. About
half of Hi-Res CAM suite suggests this redevelopment may persist,
though environment may take too long to recover to have higher
confidence, but the risk does remain.
Gallina
...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5WIMBt4M39pYQ2L9f9XMTzG-N_06pU65Cs6ECrcP_0u-YolHoT7wpFM9glweOGgrCsbs=
-yb5i67558CstYHz17P4vkk$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...MOB...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...
LAT...LON 31998811 31638766 31038759 30148821 29078933=20
29079008 29639038 30648984 31288947 31908895=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20
=3D =3D =3D
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