BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook De: COD Weather Processor Data: Sun, 24 May 2026 16:43:03 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS01 KWNS 241642 SWODY1 SPC AC 241641 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SIOUXLAND/MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of hail/wind may occur across the Middle Missouri Valley/Siouxland later this afternoon into evening, with isolated severe storms also possible this afternoon/early evening across other parts of the central and southern Plains and Southeast. ...Middle Missouri Valley/Siouxland... Limited/late-day-arriving forcing for ascent and modest-caliber low-level moisture return by late May standards continues to temper forecast confidence details. However, overall environment and scenario appears to warrant a categorical Slight Risk centered on Siouxland given some potential for supercells capable of large hail later this afternoon through early/mid-evening. A low-amplitude shortwave trough currently over Montana will eventually influence the region, but generally not until this evening. Low-level moisture will modestly increase but be offset by diurnal mixing, near/east of a deepening surface low near the South Dakota/Nebraska border vicinity. Low-level convergence will maximize in this corridor, including northeast Nebraska/southeast South Dakota/far northwest Iowa and at least isolated late-day storm development is plausible, if not probable. If/where storms do occur, upwards of 35-40 kt of effective shear associated with west-northwesterly flow aloft would support supercells capable of large hail in the presence of steep lapse rates and moderate buoyancy. Additional and more elevated storm development over time is expected farther north-northeast this evening into southern Minnesota with some severe storms possible. ...Southeast States... An MCV across Alabama will continue to spread east-northeastward and influence thunderstorm development across Georgia toward South Carolina and the southern Appalachians. The boundary layer will continue to destabilize this afternoon and support the possibility of isolated wind damage with the more robust storm development this afternoon. ...North/central Texas... Per visible satellite, ample insolation and heating of a moist boundary layer will occur in the southern/eastern periphery of a remnant mid-level low. While low/mid-tropospheric winds will remain weak, sufficient heating and steep low-level lapse rates may support some strong/locally severe pulse-type storms capable of downbursts, and possibly a couple of instances of hail. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 05/24/2026 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]