BBS: TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto: MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De: COD Weather Processor
Data: Sun, 24 May 2026 17:09:42 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 241709
FFGMPD
PAZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-242305-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0225
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
108 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026
Areas affected...Central and Eastern Kentucky...Southern and
Eastern Ohio...Central and Western West Virginia
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely
Valid 241708Z - 242305Z
SUMMARY...Convective coverage and intensity will gradually
increase and expand eastward through late this afternoon ahead of
an approaching MCV. Hourly rainfall rates of 1.0 to 1.5+ inches
overlapping with highly sensitive soils will make scattered areas
of flash flooding likely.
DISCUSSION...Regional radar and visible satellite imagery early
this afternoon depict an expanding area of efficient showers and
deepening convective clouds advancing downstream from an MCV
currently migrating out of western Kentucky. While morning
activity was generally subdued, continued diurnal heating is
actively destabilizing the boundary layer across a broader
footprint. This increasing instability is fostering an expansion
of convective coverage and updraft intensity that will track
eastward across central/eastern Kentucky, southern/eastern Ohio,
and into central/western West Virginia over the next several hours.
The 12Z high-resolution guidance suite (including the HREF and
REFS) shows neighborhood probabilities for 1 inch/hr rainfall
rates increasing toward 30-50% across the region, with a notable
uptick in signal pushing into central and western West Virginia by
late afternoon. Furthermore, the deep-layer mean steering
flow?oriented southwest to northeast?will parallel the initiating
boundaries, strongly favoring cell training. The latest CAM
consensus points toward localized rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches.
The primary driver for the flash flood threat remains the low land
surface capacity across this entire region. Recent soil moisture
data and RFC Flash Flood Guidance indicate that the basins across
the Ohio Valley and into the Appalachian foothills of West
Virginia are already sensitive. The 12Z HREF/REFS blend shows a
robust and expanding 30-50% probability of exceeding these low
3-hour FFG thresholds. Given the antecedent conditions and
potential for training convection, any 1.0-1.5"+/hr rates will
drive runoff concerns, and likely overwhelming some small streams,
creeks, and low-lying infrastructure. Therefore, scattered areas
of flash flooding are generally likely this afternoon.
Orrison
...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8wmf-1b4SO41LV9d8--fOutJehNOzV4EU5Du1lyJ4ba5kDdijOKgld-gB06nRVHlNRXt=
8hN6eftIqVYMWyIFKZC_w90$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...PBZ...RLX...
RNK...
ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 41218178 41208087 40818047 40058038 39258035=20
38288059 37358159 36998231 36558393 36558497=20
36678542 37358529 37958574 38488562 39158465=20
39708363 40608255=20
=3D =3D =3D
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