BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok De: COD Weather Processor Data: Sun, 24 May 2026 17:34:33 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS02 KWNS 241734 SWODY2 SPC AC 241732 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MN ARROWHEAD REGION...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST...PARTS OF NM/FAR WEST TX...AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of the Minnesota Arrowhead region, central Plains and Midwest, Southeast, and New Mexico/Far West Texas on Monday. ...MN Arrowhead region... While large-scale ascent will be nebulous at best amidst modest midlevel height rises, most guidance depicts strong heating and potential for at least isolated storm development in the vicinity of a cold front across parts of MN Arrowhead region during the afternoon. Deep-layer flow will be modest, but southwesterly surface winds veering to west-northwesterly aloft will result in 30-35 kt of effective shear, sufficient for storm organization. Relatively steep lapse rates and moderate buoyancy will support isolated hail and localized strong/damaging gusts, if storms can mature across this region. ...Central Plains into southwest MN/northwest IA... While forcing will generally be weak, strong diurnal heating may support isolated storm development in the vicinity of a weak surface trough/confluence zone from northern NE/southern SD into northwest IA/southwest MN. Deep-layer flow will be weak, but modest midlevel west-northwesterlies may provide sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization. Favorable lapse rates and buoyancy will support potential for isolated hail and localized damaging gusts. ...NM into Far West Texas... Relatively widespread convection is expected on Monday across parts of NM into Far West TX, in association with mid/upper-level trough over the Southwest. Buoyancy is expected to remain relatively modest across NM, but generally unidirectional southerly flow within a relatively well-mixed environment will support outflow-driven clusters capable of localized severe gusts. Strong storms may spread into parts of Far West TX Monday night, with a continued threat of strong to localized severe gusts. ...Southeast... A similar regime to previous days is expected across the Gulf Coast/Southeast, with widespread convection expected to the east of a persistent mid/upper-level trough over east TX. Water-loaded downdrafts will again be capable producing localized wind damage, with any more organized potential tied to uncertain MCV development. A Marginal Risk has been included from the FL Panhandle into GA, where there appears to be the greatest potential for preconvective heating/destabilization. If organized MCV development occurs, then there may be some severe potential to the west and north of this Marginal Risk area. ...Interior Northwest/Northern Rockies... Thunderstorm development is expected by afternoon from far eastern OR/WA into ID/western MT/northwest WY, in advance of a vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving into the Pacific Northwest. Much of this activity may be relatively high-based and disorganized, with strong outflow gusts possible. The most aggressive guidance regarding moistening and destabilization suggests some marginal supercell potential across northern ID and far western MT. Severe probabilities may eventually be needed across parts of the region, if guidance consensus trends towards a greater potential for organized convection. ..Dean.. 05/24/2026 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]