BBS:      TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto:  MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De:       COD Weather Processor
Data:     Sun, 24 May 2026 16:19:39 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 241619
FFGMPD
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-242215-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0224
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1217 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Areas affected...Central to Northeast Alabama...Northwest
Georgia...Middle Tennessee

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 241617Z - 242215Z

SUMMARY...Convective coverage and intensity will continue to
expand early this afternoon as an MCV lifts northeastward.
Rainfall rates of 1-2+ inch/hr, with localized maximum totals of
2-4 inches, will make scattered areas of flash flooding likely
this afternoon given the moist antecedent conditions.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar and satellite imagery depict an
expanding area of convection across central and northern Alabama,
driven by a well-defined MCV and associated mid-level shortwave
lifting northeastward. A coupled pocket of 850mb convergence and
250mb divergence is providing robust synoptic lift. Concurrently,
diurnal heating has actively destabilized the boundary layer,
allowing MUCAPE values to surge into the 1000-2000 J/kg range.
Combined with PWATs pooling between 1.7 and 1.9 inches, the
environment is primed to support highly efficient convection with
high rainfall rates.

High-resolution guidance is in strong agreement regarding the
evolution and intensity of the afternoon convection. The 12Z HREF
highlights 50-70+ percent neighborhood probabilities for 1 inch/hr
rainfall rates across the region, with 20-30+ percent
probabilities for rates exceeding 2 inch/hr. The latest HRRR
guidance corroborates this intensity, suggesting localized total
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches through the afternoon as the
convective footprint expands from into northeast Alabama, middle
Tennessee, and eventually farther east with areas of northwest
Georgia seeing a threat.

The combination of high-end rainfall rates and expanding coverage
will pose a flash flood threat. The 12Z HREF shows 40-50 percent
probabilities for exceeding 3-hour Flash Flood Guidance (FFG)
across the targeted area. The intersection of 2+ in/hr rates with
the sloped terrain of the Cumberland Plateau and the more
sensitive urban corridors will lead to potentially more enhanced
runoff concerns, and thus overwhelming local drainage systems and
small streams. Overall, scattered areas of flash flooding are
likely across the region over the next several hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6nkighx3wfEaDfsRHYQ0MhHTbyp29_-ejb0xkuaYufEx4KbxZpsH8vZ_hA8tHPdKgJQC=
NcV3s8kz7dqvcNxHQg_s_JI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   36468476 35738436 34498476 33188559 32538648=20
            32458709 32918767 33688768 34738719 35588649=20
            36328568=20

=3D =3D =3D
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