BBS: TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto: MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De: COD Weather Processor
Data: Sun, 24 May 2026 22:22:20 +0000
-----------------------------------------------------------
AWUS01 KWNH 242222
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-250330-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0228
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
621 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026
Areas affected...North Georgia into South Carolina and Southern
Appalachians
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 242218Z - 250330Z
SUMMARY...Widespread convection with embedded high intensity
rainfall lift over Georgia and South Carolina this evening.
Additional convection over eastern Tennessee will also continue
ahead of an MCV lifting past Chattanooga. Rain rates of 2"/hr with
localized maximum totals of 2-4 inches will make scattered areas
of flash flooding likely through this evening given the moist
antecedent conditions.
DISCUSSION...As of 22Z...an MCV is moving over Chattanooga while
scattered heavy convection is over the Atlanta metro east into
South Carolina with an organized line of convection lifting from
southern Georgia. This area has upper support from increasing
right entrance jet dynamics over the eastern TN Valley and low
level support in the form of topographic lift in the southern
Appalachians as well as a remnant cool air damming wedge over the
upland area of SC into northeast GA. Ample instability is present
with 2500 J/kg SBCAPE over the GA/SC border and generally 1500
J/kg elsewhere. A pool of 2.2" PW air is lifting north from
southern GA while the 2" PW contour currently reaches Atlanta per
the 22Z RAP mesoanalysis. Ongoing activity in northern Atlanta
combined with the progress of southern GA activity warrants
including Atlanta in this discussion area. The environment in the
discussion area supports highly efficient convection with high
rainfall rates.
As is the recent trend, HRRR runs this afternoon are underdoing
current activity, while the RRFS has maxes that are too hot in GA,
but also too low in eastern TN per recent radar trends. Taking an
average of the two makes for a more reasonable solution with a
threat for 2-4" maxima through 03Z with 4-5" possible along the
GA/SC border area.
The combination of high-end rainfall rates and threat for
repeating activity in deep layer SSWly flow of 25kt poses a
scattered flash flood threat through the evening. The cool air
wedge has kept heavy rain from the southern Apps in recent days,
so the antecedent conditions are worse on the Piedmont/Cumberland
Plateau. There is a localized flash flood threat in the southern
Apps tonight as the wedge continues to break down and subtropical
moisture encounters orographic lift.
Jackson
...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8ZF2ReEL8Eu1gp6GVaTtshS2yuMRLUMaC6puJGAg1QdVZlLK9QgzTw1AqNN0yn5MFfSf=
XljB2RnmjcEz3SujlMB2dTo$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...MRX...OHX...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 36568240 36228190 35578277 34768280 34548221=20
34608161 34768086 34528066 34028066 33118118=20
32718227 33058392 33598457 34108483 34498480=20
35498514 36548440=20
=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)
-----------------------------------------------------------
[Voltar]