BBS:      TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto:  MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De:       COD Weather Processor
Data:     Mon, 25 May 2026 03:04:26 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 250301
FFGMPD
TXZ000-251300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0231
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Areas affected...Central Texas....

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250800Z - 251300Z

SUMMARY...Numerous very intense but narrow downdrafts capable of
2"/hr rates have limited cell motions to support focused areas of
heavy rainfall that may result in localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts a very mature closed low in
the Heart of Texas toward the northeast Hill country.  At 250mb,
the low is tilted from the 500mb center to the northwest to
provide solid down-shear divergence aloft and broad scale ascent.
In the low levels, proximity to the low has cyclonic convergence
but the winds are fairly light at 5-15kts at best.   However,
originating convection across the Dallas/Fort-Worth Metro,
supported a cold pool and associated outflow boundary that has
remained strong enough to support convergence to activate updrafts
along the leading edge.

RAP analysis notes that capping is starting to win out with loss
of heating, yet a small pocket of conditionally unstable air with
CAPE values in the 1500 J/kg range from Runnels to Bell/N Burnett
county.  Deep layer moisture (including through the typically
drier 700-500mb layer, as noted in CIRA LPW) is aligned to support
1.5" total PWats.  As such, the favorable broad scale ascent and
the outflow are supporting numerous narrow updrafts in the region,
with solid longevity history as noted from older convection that
had originated the boundary... so scattered updrafts of 1.5-2"/hr
rates have lingered with near zero steering flow or limited enough
to help for some small collisions allowing for these highly
focused incidents of 2-3" totals in 1-2 hours.=20

Instability should be waning through the overnight period and the
outflow boundary should weaken as well, reducing coverage but the
risk remains for a few more hours overnight to suggest a few
incidents of flash flooding will remain possible especially as the
development continues to drift into lower FFG, near the San Saba
River Valley and the northeast Hill Country.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8Y3YR0tiPwDJDIw6tLQAvXTnBSxF3Qbu5O-7weB15ga5P3ED2ARACzG3X3s98imAx0yU=
KbualKBgssB2SpQgHlIeb7I$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   32439886 32419838 32279789 31949754 31399750=20
            31049781 30909829 30919879 31059917 31369949=20
            31789957 32179934=20

=3D =3D =3D
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