BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook De: COD Weather Processor Data: Mon, 25 May 2026 05:50:35 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS01 KWNS 250550 SWODY1 SPC AC 250548 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... The risk for organized severe thunderstorm development appears low across much of the U.S. today through tonight. ...Discussion... Amplification within the westerlies across the northern mid-latitude Pacific is ongoing. Near the leading edge of this regime, a significant short wave trough and embedded mid-level cyclone are now digging toward the Pacific Northwest coast, and forecast to progress inland across coastal areas later today through tonight. As this occurs, the center of broad, weak troughing emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific is forecast to sharpen some, along a negatively tilted axis across the southern Great Basin through northern Mexican Plateau by daybreak Tuesday. Downstream, weak troughing across eastern Texas and the western Gulf Basin will tend to slowly shift north-northeastward toward the lower Mississippi Valley, as a high remains prominent across the subtropical western Atlantic. In higher latitudes, mid-level ridging is forecast to continue to build to the east the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. This will include further mid-level height rises across the Missouri Valley through Upper Midwest and adjacent Great Lakes region. In lower levels, a cold front likely will advance inland across Washington, Oregon and much of northern California, while surface troughing deepens across much of the Great Basin and northern Rockies through northern Great Plains. However, seasonably moist boundary-layer air appears likely to generally remain confined to portions of the southern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley through Southeast and Mid Atlantic. ...Minnesota Arrowhead/adjacent Upper Great Lakes... Mid-level heights are forecast to continue to rise across the region today, even as a fairly significant short wave trough and associated forcing for ascent dig across northwestern Ontario, generally well to the north of the upper Great Lakes region. Even so, convection allowing and related machine learning guidance continue to suggest that isolated thunderstorm development is possible as far south as the Minnesota Arrowhead vicinity, in an environment that could become supportive of a supercell. As a result, 5 percent severe weather probabilities will be maintained. However, given the lack of better available low-level moisture and the spread evident within guidance concerning potential destabilization, these may be too high. ...Central Great Plains and adjacent Middle Missouri Valley... Calibrated thunderstorm probabilities from most ensemble output suggest that widely scattered thunderstorm development is probable by late this afternoon, in a corridor of stronger potential boundary-layer destabilization within the lee surface troughing, from portions of southwestern Nebraska through southwestern Minnesota/northwestern Iowa. If inhibition associated with continuing mid-level height rises and more substantive lower/mid-tropospheric warming is overcome, thermodynamic profiles may be conducive to locally strong to severe surface gusts and some hail, particularly where a narrow corridor of better low-level moisture is maintained across the northeastern Nebraska through southern Minnesota vicinity. ...Parts of southwestern Texas into south central New Mexico... Stronger deep-layer layer shear and forcing for ascent, within the exit region of a strong subtropical jet nosing into the northern Mexican Plateau, may support and enhance thunderstorm development across parts of northeastern Chihuahua into adjacent portions of the Rio Grande Valley by late this afternoon. This probably will be rooted within a weakly unstable, but deeply mixed boundary layer supportive of at least a risk for strong to severe wind gusts. ..Kerr/Chalmers.. 05/25/2026 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]