BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook De: COD Weather Processor Data: Mon, 25 May 2026 12:44:36 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS01 KWNS 251244 SWODY1 SPC AC 251242 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...PORTIONS OF FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible today for parts of the central Gulf Coast, portions of Far West Texas and southern New Mexico, Nebraska into southwest Minnesota, and the northern Rockies. ...Central Gulf Coast... A northward-moving MCV over southern MS to the east of an upper trough will aid in the minor flow enhancement across this region today. A few stronger thunderstorms may yield a localized wind damage risk. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out given the moist low levels co-located with small but favorably curved hodographs. See MCD #852 for short-term details. ...Northern Rockies... An upper trough immediately west of the Pacific Northwest this morning will gradually approach the northern Rockies as it digs southeastward into OR and northern CA through tonight. Diurnal heating will foster weak buoyancy and the development of quick-moving thunderstorms later today. Steepened low to mid-level lapse rates may support a couple of more vigorous evaporatively cooled downdrafts capable of localized severe gusts. ...Minnesota Arrowhead... Glancing influence of a mid-level shortwave trough over ON will overspread the MN Arrowhead later this afternoon. Steepened lapse rates and adequate cloud-bearing shear may result in a couple of stronger thunderstorms capable of a localized wind/hail risk. ...Central Great Plains and adjacent Middle Missouri Valley... Model guidance continue to indicate scattered thunderstorms developing late today into this evening from NE into southwestern MN/northwest IA. Forcing for ascent will likely remain weak to negligible due in part to close proximity to a mid-level anticyclone situated over the lower MO Valley. However, ample instability could yield an isolated risk for large hail/severe gusts with the stronger multicells prior to this activity diminishing by late evening. ...Parts of Far West Texas into southern New Mexico... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over AZ with a left-exit region of an upper jet situated over the border region of southeast AZ eastward into Far West TX. Diurnal destabilization and inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will potentially support localized severe gusts with the stronger downdrafts later this afternoon into the early evening. ..Smith/Weinman.. 05/25/2026 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]