BBS:      TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto:  MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De:       COD Weather Processor
Data:     Mon, 25 May 2026 15:19:59 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 251519
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-252100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0234
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1118 AM EDT Mon May 25 2026

Areas affected...central Gulf Coast into eastern MS/western AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 251518Z - 252100Z

SUMMARY...At least localized areas of flash flooding will be
likely across portions of the central Gulf Coast into eastern MS
and western AL through 21Z. Areas of training thunderstorms will
be capable of 2 to 3 in/hr rainfall and given saturated soils,
areas of flash flooding are expected through the remainder of the
morning into the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery at 15Z helped identify a
couple of MCVs within an area of scattered thunderstorms extending
from southeastern LA, southern MS and the western FL Panhandle,
northward into eastern MS and western AL. The environment was
represented by 12Z soundings from LIX and JAN (along with 14Z SPC
mesoanalysis data) showed MLCAPE of ~500 to 1000 J/kg along with
PWs near 2 inches. Ascent across the larger scale environment was
favorable for heavy rain with low level flow sandwiched between a
700-500 mb low over eastern TX and a ridge off of the southeastern
U.S., located beneath the divergent right-entrance region of an
upper level jet positioned over the lower MS and lower OH Valleys.

There is currently a relative minimum in MLCAPE over central to
northern MS which should limit rainfall intensities with northward
extent but pockets of higher MLCAPE exist to the south and east
(into western AL). In addition, areas of increasing instability
will be possible through some degree of surface heating among
areas of thick cloud cover, supportive of intense rainfall via
dominant warm rain processes. N to NNE movement of the two MCVs
will continue as well as additional thunderstorms approaching from
the northern Gulf with potential for MCV development. Areas of
training are expected with high hourly rainfall of 2 to 3 inches
at times. These high rain rates along with mostly saturated soils
due to rainfall over the past week will likely allow for at least
isolated areas of flash flooding through 21Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_djEPrzdmxZ8H-zvzUY2jrIMdPGkkiyW6lA-eGZhyLu3YWMfAUYPJrvUE5YfYuRjF56c=
d-CAYqgx8EeSYhhGntfA0Ac$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LIX...MEG...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   33968788 33608737 32798698 31738695 30298720=20
            29428788 28768897 28839023 30079032 31798989=20
            32438966 33888885=20

=3D =3D =3D
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