BBS:      TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto:  MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De:       COD Weather Processor
Data:     Mon, 25 May 2026 17:48:15 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 251748
FFGMPD
TXZ000-252315-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0235
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
147 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026

Areas affected...central to western TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251745Z - 252315Z

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered flash flooding will be
possible through 23Z across parts of central to western TX. Slow
moving thunderstorms will be capable of producing hourly rainfall
of 1 to 2+ inches along with totals of 2 to 4+ inches.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery from 1720Z showed a field
of deepening cumulus clouds over portions of the Edwards Plateau,
northwestward into the Rolling Plains region of west-central TX.
Cloud streets identified confluent low level flow into the region,
located west of a remnant MCV located roughly 40 miles east of
Brownwood. A lack of cumulus inferred stability near the MCV
center from prior rainfall, but estimated MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg
was shown via the 17Z SPC mesoanalysis amid weakly anomalous PW
values over central to western TX.

Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase through the
remainder of the afternoon to the southwest and west of the slow
moving (nearly stationary) MCV with some component of left-exit
region upper level divergence aiding with broader scale ascent
across central TX. The greatest concern for isolated to widely
scattered flash flood coverage through 23Z is with slow movement
of cells (5-15 kt) coupled with portions of the state that have
picked up 300 to 600 percent of normal rainfall over the past
week. Slow cell motions will likely yield hourly rainfall of 1 to
2 inches (locally higher) which may result in isolated totals of 2
to 4+ inches. Local runoff sensitivities of the Hill Country and
possibly as far east as I-35 near San Antonio are also
considerations into the afternoon.=20

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6yWpBt9U5fD3K9mNbvCfvsFn4cJ4wr-N3sjqGqu6sRDlWZmItqaZgNzRvksxeraZstgl=
76yHsj8Hy6CvenkR4FwUeS4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   32890077 31909993 30899845 29999804 29359854=20
            29490010 30240156 31280221 32230221 32880173=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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